7517 Watson Cir · Heron Bay, GA 30248

$351,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,770 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 2008 0.26 ac lot $127/sqft · at area comps Est $429k · 18% under $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the sought-after Heron Bay community, this spacious two-story home offers a functional layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The main level features an open living area with a cozy fireplace that flows easily into the kitchen and dining space, creating a welcoming setting for gatherings. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including a generously sized primary suite with a well-appointed bath. The daylight basement provides excellent flexibility for storage or future expansion, while the rear deck overlooks a private, wooded backyard setting. Enjoy access to community amenities and a convenient location near major roadways, shopping, and dining in Henry County.

Key facts

• Heron bay community
• Community amenities
• Open living area

Tags

• HERON BAY COMMUNITY
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• COZY FIREPLACE
• DAYLIGHT BASEMENT
• PRIVATE WOODED BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $351k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-375 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Heron Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#159 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 496 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,405 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $429,229
• List price: $351,000
• Delta: -18.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6508 Terraglen Way	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,875 (+4%)	5mo	$430,000	$150	70
7663 Watson Cir	0.24mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,556 (-8%)	2mo	$349,000	$137	67
923 Buckhorn Bnd	0.68mi	4/3.5	2,878 (+4%)	12mo	$399,999	$139	51
928 Buckhorn Bnd	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,737 (-1%)	12mo	$350,000	$128	49
7289 Eton Ln	0.69mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,801 (+1%)	13mo	$399,900	$143	48
956 Buckhorn Bnd	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,582 (-7%)	8mo	$320,000	$124	47
2439 Mcintosh Dr	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,997 (+8%)	5mo	$356,000	$119	41
5345 Heron Bay Blvd	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,409 (-13%)	1mo	$384,470	$160	40
5337 Heron Bay Blvd	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,409 (-13%)	1mo	$374,000	$155	40
724 Landsdowne Ln	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,520 (-9%)	11mo	$335,000	$133	37
5353 Heron Bay Blvd	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,409 (-13%)	4mo	$384,470	$160	37
5361 Heron Bay Blvd	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,409 (-13%)	5mo	$382,045	$159	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-82,989
• Equity at exit: $52,335

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-111,945
• Equity at exit: $30,348

Cash invested: $98,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30248

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,804 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,841
• Tax from tax record: −$561 /mo · $6,727/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,279

Max offer price $284,697

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-177	-5% $-276	+0% $-375	+5% $-475	+10% $-574
Rent	-10% $-597	-5% $-486	+0% $-375	+5% $-265	+10% $-154
Rate	-1.0pp $-199	-0.5pp $-286	base $-375	+0.5pp $-466	+1.0pp $-559

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,750
• Closing costs: $10,530
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5341 Heron Bay Blvd Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.5	2091	$2,800	$1.34	0d	1	0.73mi
1629 Prospect Pl Locust Grove, GA	5.0	3.0	3350	$2,730	$0.81	25d	1	0.90mi
117 Cottage Club Dr Locust Grove, GA	3.0	3.0	2109	$1,995	$0.95	44d	1	1.00mi
1521 Granby Ln Locust Grove, GA	5.0	3.5	3546	$3,031	$0.85	44d	1	1.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $351,000 Pending 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $351,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $351,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $351,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $351,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $351,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $351,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $351,000 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $351,000 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $351,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $351,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $351,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $351,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $351,000 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $351,000 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Heron Bay community, this spacious two-story home offers a functional layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The main level features an open living area with a cozy fireplace that flows easily into the kitchen and dining space, creating a welcoming setting for gatherings. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including a generously sized primary suite with a well-appointed bath. The daylight basement provides excellent flexibility for storage or future expansion, while the rear deck overlooks a private, wooded backyard setting. Enjoy access to community amenities and a convenient location near major roadways, shopping, and dining in Henry County.

16. 2026-05-15
    price $351,000 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Heron Bay community, this spacious two-story home offers a functional layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The main level features an open living area with a cozy fireplace that flows easily into the kitchen and dining space, creating a welcoming setting for gatherings. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including a generously sized primary suite with a well-appointed bath. The daylight basement provides excellent flexibility for storage or future expansion, while the rear deck overlooks a private, wooded backyard setting. Enjoy access to community amenities and a convenient location near major roadways, shopping, and dining in Henry County.

17. 2026-04-17
    price $362,000 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Heron Bay community, this spacious two-story home offers a functional layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The main level features an open living area with a cozy fireplace that flows easily into the kitchen and dining space, creating a welcoming setting for gatherings. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including a generously sized primary suite with a well-appointed bath. The daylight basement provides excellent flexibility for storage or future expansion, while the rear deck overlooks a private, wooded backyard setting. Enjoy access to community amenities and a convenient location near major roadways, shopping, and dining in Henry County.

18. 2026-04-17
    price $362,000 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Heron Bay community, this spacious two-story home offers a functional layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The main level features an open living area with a cozy fireplace that flows easily into the kitchen and dining space, creating a welcoming setting for gatherings. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including a generously sized primary suite with a well-appointed bath. The daylight basement provides excellent flexibility for storage or future expansion, while the rear deck overlooks a private, wooded backyard setting. Enjoy access to community amenities and a convenient location near major roadways, shopping, and dining in Henry County.

19. 2026-03-27
    price $369,000 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Heron Bay community, this spacious two-story home offers a functional layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The main level features an open living area with a cozy fireplace that flows easily into the kitchen and dining space, creating a welcoming setting for gatherings. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including a generously sized primary suite with a well-appointed bath. The daylight basement provides excellent flexibility for storage or future expansion, while the rear deck overlooks a private, wooded backyard setting. Enjoy access to community amenities and a convenient location near major roadways, shopping, and dining in Henry County.

20. 2026-03-27
    price $369,000 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Heron Bay community, this spacious two-story home offers a functional layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The main level features an open living area with a cozy fireplace that flows easily into the kitchen and dining space, creating a welcoming setting for gatherings. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including a generously sized primary suite with a well-appointed bath. The daylight basement provides excellent flexibility for storage or future expansion, while the rear deck overlooks a private, wooded backyard setting. Enjoy access to community amenities and a convenient location near major roadways, shopping, and dining in Henry County.

21. 2026-03-06
    price $380,000 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Heron Bay community, this spacious two-story home offers a functional layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The main level features an open living area with a cozy fireplace that flows easily into the kitchen and dining space, creating a welcoming setting for gatherings. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including a generously sized primary suite with a well-appointed bath. The daylight basement provides excellent flexibility for storage or future expansion, while the rear deck overlooks a private, wooded backyard setting. Enjoy access to community amenities and a convenient location near major roadways, shopping, and dining in Henry County.

22. 2026-03-06
    price $380,000 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Heron Bay community, this spacious two-story home offers a functional layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The main level features an open living area with a cozy fireplace that flows easily into the kitchen and dining space, creating a welcoming setting for gatherings. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including a generously sized primary suite with a well-appointed bath. The daylight basement provides excellent flexibility for storage or future expansion, while the rear deck overlooks a private, wooded backyard setting. Enjoy access to community amenities and a convenient location near major roadways, shopping, and dining in Henry County.

23. 2026-02-12
    listed $392,000 New 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Heron Bay community, this spacious two-story home offers a functional layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The main level features an open living area with a cozy fireplace that flows easily into the kitchen and dining space, creating a welcoming setting for gatherings. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including a generously sized primary suite with a well-appointed bath. The daylight basement provides excellent flexibility for storage or future expansion, while the rear deck overlooks a private, wooded backyard setting. Enjoy access to community amenities and a convenient location near major roadways, shopping, and dining in Henry County.

24. 2026-02-12
    listed $392,000 Active 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Located in the sought-after Heron Bay community, this spacious two-story home offers a functional layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The main level features an open living area with a cozy fireplace that flows easily into the kitchen and dining space, creating a welcoming setting for gatherings. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including a generously sized primary suite with a well-appointed bath. The daylight basement provides excellent flexibility for storage or future expansion, while the rear deck overlooks a private, wooded backyard setting. Enjoy access to community amenities and a convenient location near major roadways, shopping, and dining in Henry County.

25. 2022-03-24
    soldstatus $412,000
26. 2022-03-21
    historical
27. 2022-03-21
    soldstatus $412,000 Closed
28. 2022-03-21
    soldstatus $412,000 Sold
29. 2022-02-15
    status Under Contract
30. 2022-02-15
    status Pending
31. 2022-01-20
    listed $420,000 Active
32. 2022-01-20
    listed $420,000 New
33. 2022-01-14
    soldstatus $385,500
34. 2009-08-13
    soldstatus $209,000
35. 2008-02-16
    listed $209,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,727 · $561/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,727 · $561/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,661
• − Property taxes: −$6,727
• − Insurance: −$1,755
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,692
• − Management: −$2,692
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$10,211
• Taxable loss: −$10,606
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,545
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Heron Bay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #159
• US rank: #10151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heron Bay, GA
• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 36,038
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 36,038
• Household income: $83,823
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 485.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.09%
• Current HPI: 203.5358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+67.2% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $351,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $351,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $362,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $362,000 FMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $369,000 FMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $369,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $380,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $380,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $392,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $392,000 GAMLS
• 2022-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $412,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-21 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2022-03-21 Sold (MLS) $412,000 GAMLS
• 2022-03-21 Sold (MLS) $412,000 FMLS
• 2022-02-15 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-02-15 Pending — FMLS
• 2022-01-20 Listed $420,000 GAMLS
• 2022-01-20 Listed $420,000 FMLS
• 2022-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $385,500 Public Records
• 2009-08-13 Sold (MLS) $209,000 FMLS
• 2008-02-16 Listed $209,900 FMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,727 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.