643 Ocean Shores Blvd NW #103 · Ocean Shores, WA 98569

$28,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Condo · 143 Days on market

Built 1966 $42/sqft · 54% below area ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ground floor Ocean Front Condo with nightly rental income! Owners can use up to 14 days a year. This condo has two queen size beds and queen sofa sleeper so everyone can stay. Unit is Pet friendly (up to 75 lbs). Cute, clean with full kitchen and dining area. Living room has slider to outdoor patio, lawn area and nearby dog area. The Canterbury Inn provides indoor pool, exercise & conference rooms and has a 24 hour front desk. No HOA dues. This is a motel condominium and owners share in profits (or losses) of the motel operation. Previous income to owners has been about $400 annually. Call for appointment. This is a nightly motel rental.

Key facts

• Ocean front condo
• Full kitchen
• Exercise rooms

Tags

• OCEAN FRONT CONDO
• PET FRIENDLY
• FULL KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• INDOOR POOL
• EXERCISE ROOMS

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $28,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$60,949) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $761 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.9% vs local median 3.1% in Ocean Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#424 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, health & safety C-.
• North Beach School District (rural): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #236 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 653 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $194 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $840 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $24,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 116.45%
• DSCR: 6.18
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,949
• List price: $28,000
• Delta: -54.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $43,939
• Equity at exit: $4,175

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.85×
• Total profit: $100,733
• Equity at exit: $2,421

Cash invested: $7,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98569

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$147
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$35 /mo · $420/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $761

Break-even live

Break-even rent $245

Max offer price $28,000

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $780	-5% $771	+0% $761	+5% $751	+10% $741
Rent	-10% $665	-5% $713	+0% $761	+5% $809	+10% $856
Rate	-1.0pp $775	-0.5pp $768	base $761	+0.5pp $754	+1.0pp $746

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,000
• Closing costs: $840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
672 Ocean Shores Blvd NW Ocean Shores, WA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	44d	1	0.17mi
165 Barnacle St Unit 503 Ocean Shores, WA	1.0	1.0	725	$950	$1.31	44d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $28,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $28,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $28,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $28,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $28,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $28,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $28,000 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $28,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $28,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $28,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $28,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $28,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $28,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $28,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $28,000 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $28,000 Active 123 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    price $28,000
18. 2026-03-29
    price $33,000
19. 2026-01-27
    listed $38,000 Active
20. 2022-06-27
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed
21. 2022-04-28
    status Pending
22. 2020-07-30
    price $60,000
23. 2020-02-13
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,568
• − Property taxes: −$420
• − Insurance: −$140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$815
• Taxable income: $9,234
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,216
• After-tax cash flow: $6,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5305700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,966
• Composite: 34.46/100
• National rank: #10153
• State rank: #236 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ocean Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #424
• US rank: #16852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Shores, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 7,187
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,489
• Household income: $58,378
• Rent vs Own: 17.0% rent · 83.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.33%
• Current HPI: 380.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-44.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $28,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $33,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Listed $38,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-27 Sold (MLS) $60,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-28 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-30 Price Changed $60,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-13 Listed $50,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid