15443 Glinton Farm Ln · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$269,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious Two-Story Living with LVP Flooring, No Back Neighbors, and First-Floor Guest Suite The Magellan is a beautifully designed two-story home offering 2,260 square feet with 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. One bedroom and a full bath are located on the first floor, ideal for guests or flexible living. The open-concept main level features LVP flooring throughout the main living areas and a modern kitchen with granite countertops, a large island, soft close cabinets and drawers, and stainless steel appliances, creating a seamless flow for entertaining and daily life. Upstairs includes a spacious game room and a private primary suite with a walk-in closet and en suite bath. W

Key facts

• Large island
• Soft close cabinets
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR GUEST SUITE
• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $442,960.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,832 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.77%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 16.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $442,960
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6002 Mercer St	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,260 (0%)	0mo	$291,000	$129	95
17421 Fm 1484 Rd	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,192 (-3%)	14mo	$429,000	$196	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-162,416
• Equity at exit: $66,047

10-year hold

• IRR: -97.1%
• Equity multiple: -1.22×
• Total profit: $-275,026
• Equity at exit: $38,299

Cash invested: $124,029 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,258 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,323
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$554 /mo · $6,644/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-1,320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,929

Max offer price $251,936

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,740
• Closing costs: $13,289
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9248 Laiden Creek Trl Unit 510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,992	$1.11	3d	1	1.44mi
9262 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1601	$2,135	$1.33	1d	15	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,990 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,990 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,990 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,990 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,990 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $269,990 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
8. 2026-04-06
   price $299,500
9. 2026-03-31
   price $274,990
10. 2026-03-31
    listed $299,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,813
• − Property taxes: −$6,644
• − Insurance: −$2,215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,168
• − Management: −$2,168
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$12,886
• Taxable loss: −$24,310
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,834
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and updated flooring to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring — Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring — Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $299,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $274,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $299,500 HARMLS