3103 Lake Dr · Desert Hills, AZ 86404

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1979 4,792 sqft lot Est $215k · 26% under $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer upper. Mostly original, Lake side of highway, owned land, side parking, covered patio, recently sealed roof. Great flip or rental opportunity.

Key facts

• Recently sealed roof
• Lake side of highway
• Covered patio

Tags

• LAKE SIDE OF HIGHWAY
• OWNED LAND
• SIDE PARKING
• COVERED PATIO
• RECENTLY SEALED ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area 924; Target list date June 24, 2026
• Financial info: List price $159,000
• HOA & community: HOA dues approximately $60 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not specified
• Security: Security details not specified
• Utilities: Utilities details not specified
• Home design: Mobile/Manufactured Home; Built in 1979
• Construction: Construction details not specified; Roof and foundation details not specified
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 4,792 sq ft

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring details not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating and cooling details not specified
• Interior features: Mobile/manufactured home with an open living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.0% in Desert Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#65 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Lake Havasu Unified District (4368) (urban): math 39% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #66 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thunderbolt Middle School (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #81 of 218 statewide, top 37%, 851 students, 41% FRL); Lake Havasu High School (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #111 of 381 statewide, top 29%, 1,813 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 420 active listings in the ZIP; 2,543 units permitted in Mohave County in 2024 (33 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mohave County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $159,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.60%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,292
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3045 Ted Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0	952 (+3%)	4mo	$175,000	$184	85
3032 Pero Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0	924 (0%)	4mo	$275,000	$298	84
3021 Lera Ln	0.26mi	2/2.0	924 (0%)	7mo	$170,000	$184	82
3145 E Mescalero Dr	0.26mi	2/2.5	910 (-2%)	7mo	$330,000	$363	78
3020 Mescalero Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	941 (+2%)	19mo	$229,000	$243	71
3004 Erwin Ln	0.39mi	2/2.0	924 (0%)	15mo	$170,000	$184	69
3022 William Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,024 (+11%)	5mo	$245,000	$239	68
3501 N Hwy 95 Space 74	0.33mi	1/1.0 (-1)	950 (+3%)	4mo	$56,000	$59	67
3134 Jennie Ln	0.37mi	2/1.0	982 (+6%)	2mo	$178,200	$181	67
3049 Joyce Ln	0.46mi	2/1.5	910 (-2%)	13mo	$199,000	$219	63
3134 Michael Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,032 (+12%)	13mo	$240,000	$233	61
3065 Joyce Ln	0.45mi	2/2.0	840 (-9%)	16mo	$208,000	$248	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-18,582
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-16,609
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86404

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,613 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,397

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $281	-5% $226	+0% $171	+5% $116	+10% $61
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $107	+0% $171	+5% $234	+10% $298
Rate	-1.0pp $251	-0.5pp $211	base $171	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 148-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $159,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,359
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,549
• − Management: −$1,549
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$511
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$123
• After-tax cash flow: $2,170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Havasu Unified District (4368)
• NCES district ID: 0404280
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,993
• Composite: 33.92/100
• National rank: #5339
• State rank: #66 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Desert Hills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #65
• US rank: #11043

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Desert Hills, AZ
• County: Mohave County · 181,906 people
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 19,234
• Household income: $72,910
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 343.0

Population outlook (Mohave County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 209,184 people
• By 2030: 209,674 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 205,897 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 196,810 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 169,454 · -19.0%
• By 2100: 136,630 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Portuguese 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Mohave

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.8) · D 21.8% · R 77.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.9pp · 2024: -55.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.8 2020: R+51.3 2016: R+51.5 2012: R+42.6 2008: R+32.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -189.23%
• Current HPI: 402.8832
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Metro: Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B