15872 Ky-38 · Kenvir, KY 40828

$19,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,316 sqft · Other · 156 Days on market

Built 1976 0.85 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Manufactured home offering over 1,300 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. Property includes a large covered front deck and sits on approximately 0.85 acres. The lot borders a creek, providing a waterfront setting. Room to park, store equipment, or use the land as needed. Utilities and layout typical of a manufactured home. Property is being SOLD AS-IS, seller will not make repairs. 7 Day Hold period on all offers, please submit after 7 DOM. Any offers on this property require a minimum Earnest Money Deposit of 1% of the Purchase Price or $1,000, whichever is greater.

Key facts

• Borders a creek
• Waterfront setting
• Room to park

Tags

• LARGE COVERED FRONT DECK
• BORDERS A CREEK
• WATERFRONT SETTING
• ROOM TO PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#457 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harlan County (rural): math 16% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #149 of 165 in KY (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harlan County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (56%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $17,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 47.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 147.32%
• DSCR: 7.55
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.49×
• Total profit: $36,169
• Equity at exit: $2,967

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.79×
• Total profit: $82,383
• Equity at exit: $1,721

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40828

• Home prices YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $335/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $618

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $19,900 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $19,900 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $19,900 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $19,900 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,900 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,900 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $19,900 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $19,900 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $19,900 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $19,900 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $19,900 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,900 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-05-11
    price $19,900 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Manufactured home offering over 1,300 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. Property includes a large covered front deck and sits on approximately 0.85 acres. The lot borders a creek, providing a waterfront setting. Room to park, store equipment, or use the land as needed. Utilities and layout typical of a manufactured home. Property is being SOLD AS-IS, seller will not make repairs. 7 Day Hold period on all offers, please submit after 7 DOM. Any offers on this property require a minimum Earnest Money Deposit of 1% of the Purchase Price or $1,000, whichever is greater.

14. 2026-04-02
    price $29,900 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Manufactured home offering over 1,300 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. Property includes a large covered front deck and sits on approximately 0.85 acres. The lot borders a creek, providing a waterfront setting. Room to park, store equipment, or use the land as needed. Utilities and layout typical of a manufactured home. Property is being SOLD AS-IS, seller will not make repairs. 7 Day Hold period on all offers, please submit after 7 DOM. Any offers on this property require a minimum Earnest Money Deposit of 1% of the Purchase Price or $1,000, whichever is greater.

15. 2026-03-07
    price $34,900 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Manufactured home offering over 1,300 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. Property includes a large covered front deck and sits on approximately 0.85 acres. The lot borders a creek, providing a waterfront setting. Room to park, store equipment, or use the land as needed. Utilities and layout typical of a manufactured home. Property is being SOLD AS-IS, seller will not make repairs. 7 Day Hold period on all offers, please submit after 7 DOM. Any offers on this property require a minimum Earnest Money Deposit of 1% of the Purchase Price or $1,000, whichever is greater.

16. 2026-01-12
    listed $44,900 Active 584-char remark

    Show marketing remark (584 chars)

    Manufactured home offering over 1,300 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. Property includes a large covered front deck and sits on approximately 0.85 acres. The lot borders a creek, providing a waterfront setting. Room to park, store equipment, or use the land as needed. Utilities and layout typical of a manufactured home. Property is being SOLD AS-IS, seller will not make repairs. 7 Day Hold period on all offers, please submit after 7 DOM. Any offers on this property require a minimum Earnest Money Deposit of 1% of the Purchase Price or $1,000, whichever is greater.

17. 2025-12-10
    historical
18. 2025-09-10
    listed $59,983 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $335 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $335 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$335
• − Insurance: −$897
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,002
• − Management: −$1,002
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $7,596
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,823
• After-tax cash flow: $5,588/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlan County
• NCES district ID: 2102540
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -24.00%
• Median HH income: $26,283
• Composite: 20.13/100
• National rank: #8642
• State rank: #149 of 165 in KY

Livability — Kenvir

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #22752

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 97
• Population (ZIP): 4,431

Population outlook (Harlan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,324 people
• By 2030: 22,492 · -7.5%
• By 2040: 19,052 · -21.7%
• By 2050: 16,060 · -34.0%
• By 2075: 10,525 · -56.7%
• By 2100: 6,933 · -71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harlan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.2) · D 11.6% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -76.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.2 2020: R+71.8 2016: R+72.2 2012: R+64.0 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.50%
• Current HPI: 191.4283
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-66.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $19,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $29,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $34,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $44,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $59,983 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $335 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.