166 Trail Ridge Dr · Lake City, TX 78383

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1900 0.26 ac lot Est $245k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover lakeside living in this charming 2 bedroom , two bath home situated on a desirable corner lot. Enjoy stunning lake views from your property- an ideal retreat for those who appreciate nature and lake life. When entering the home an inviting open -concept floor plan that connects the living, dinning, and kitchen areas. Double French doors lead to a covered deck - perfect for relaxing and soaking in the beautiful surroundings after a long day. The home has durable laminate flooring , ensuring easy maintenance, The enclosed patio adds additional SQ FT for gatherings -and out door enjoyment. It also has a great outdoor kitchen that with a touch of TLC could really turn this space into s

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Stunning lake views
• Lakeside living

Tags

• LAKESIDE LIVING
• STUNNING LAKE VIEWS
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED DECK
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($388/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,180 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• George West ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Live Oak County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Live Oak County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,938 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,944
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 Trail Cir	0.07mi	2/1.0	1,054 (+5%)	10mo	$150,000	$142	77
165 Trail Rdg	0.05mi	3/1.0 (+1)	926 (-8%)	16mo	$225,000	$243	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-22,223
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-16,664
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78383

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,329 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,032/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,288

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $117	-5% $75	+0% $32	+5% $-10	+10% $-53
Rent	-10% $-73	-5% $-20	+0% $32	+5% $85	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $108	-0.5pp $70	base $32	+0.5pp $-7	+1.0pp $-46

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-02-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-26
   price $149,900
3. 2025-12-28
   price $153,900
4. 2025-11-02
   listed $158,900 Active
5. 2025-10-08
   soldstatus
6. 2025-10-08
   soldstatus
7. 2025-06-17
   price $174,000
8. 2025-04-28
   price $179,000
9. 2025-02-19
   listed $184,100 Active
10. 2011-07-18
    listed $129,900
11. 2005-05-13
    soldstatus
12. 2005-01-21
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,032 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$711/yr (+$59/mo · 35.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,032
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,276
• − Management: −$1,276
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$513
• After-tax cash flow: $901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: George West ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820550
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,721
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2175
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1180
• US rank: #20606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,306

Population outlook (Live Oak County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,886 people
• By 2030: 14,793 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 16,633 · +19.8%
• By 2050: 18,511 · +33.3%
• By 2075: 23,859 · +71.8%
• By 2100: 26,396 · +90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Live Oak

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.9% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+66.9 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+54.5 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.06%
• Current HPI: 178.3727
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+114.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Pending — CBMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $149,900 CBMLS
• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $153,900 CBMLS
• 2025-11-02 Listed $158,900 CBMLS
• 2025-10-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-10-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $174,000 CBMLS
• 2025-04-28 Price Changed $179,000 CBMLS
• 2025-02-19 Listed $184,100 CBMLS
• 2011-07-18 Listed $129,900 CBMLS
• 2005-05-13 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2005-01-21 Listed $69,900 CBMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,032 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.