2230 Lake Park Dr #153 · San Jacinto, CA 92583

$130,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,563 sqft · Manufactured public records · 171 Days on market

Built 1977 $83/sqft · 60% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Senior Park Community 55+. .This well maintained, spacious 2 bed, 2 bath LAKE FRONT home is move in ready! With fresh flooring throughout, beamed ceilings, custom window coverings, tinted windows, formal living room, family room and a bonus room, this home is perfect for entertaining. Located in the back of the home you will find a private screened in patio. Enjoy your morning coffee with a beautiful view of the lake from your front porch! This home has a lot of potential to make it your dream home!

Key facts

• Fresh flooring
• Lake front
• Beamed ceilings

Tags

• LAKE FRONT
• PRIVATE SCREENED IN PATIO
• FRESH FLOORING
• BEAMED CEILINGS
• CUSTOM WINDOW COVERINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 3.8% in San Jacinto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#467 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• San Jacinto Unified (suburban): math 13% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #421 of 517 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.68%
• DSCR: 2.85
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,000
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: 62.50%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2230 Lake Park #127	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	3mo	$32,000	$22	84
2230 Lake Park Dr #230	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,625 (+4%)	18mo	$142,000	$87	78
2230 Lake Park Dr #106	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	2mo	$35,000	$24	77
2230 Lake Park Dr #87	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,610 (+3%)	23mo	$120,000	$75	76
2230 Lake Park Dr #128	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,760 (+13%)	4mo	$62,500	$36	75
2230 Lake Park Dr #143	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	14mo	$75,000	$52	75
2230 Lake Park Dr #116	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,664 (+6%)	10mo	$70,000	$42	74
2230 Lake Park Dr #91	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	21mo	$67,000	$47	69
2230 Lake Park Dr #81	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	24mo	$113,000	$78	67
2230 Lake Park Dr #223	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	4mo	$77,500	$58	66
2230 Lake Park Dr #174	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-8%)	16mo	$142,000	$99	65
2230-223 Lake Park Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	17mo	$100,000	$74	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $58,405
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.13×
• Total profit: $150,273
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92583

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,562 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $288/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $1,264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,338	-5% $1,301	+0% $1,264	+5% $1,227	+10% $1,191
Rent	-10% $1,062	-5% $1,163	+0% $1,264	+5% $1,365	+10% $1,467
Rate	-1.0pp $1,330	-0.5pp $1,297	base $1,264	+0.5pp $1,231	+1.0pp $1,196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
904 Bergamo Ave San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	1596	$2,600	$1.63	11d	1	0.59mi
905 Verona Ave San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	1417	$2,300	$1.62	18d	1	0.63mi
1129 Osprey St San Jacinto, CA	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,700	$1.71	44d	1	1.03mi
492 Foursquare Pl San Jacinto, CA	3.0	2.0	1573	$3,500	$2.23	0d	1	1.10mi
646 Field Maple Pl GLMN HOT SPGS, CA	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1825	$2,850	$1.56	0d	9	1.21mi
621 S Mistletoe Ave San Jacinto, CA	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	44d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 171 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 166 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $130,000 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    price $130,000 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    Senior Park Community 55+. .This well maintained, spacious 2 bed, 2 bath LAKE FRONT home is move in ready! With fresh flooring throughout, beamed ceilings, custom window coverings, tinted windows, formal living room, family room and a bonus room, this home is perfect for entertaining. Located in the back of the home you will find a private screened in patio. Enjoy your morning coffee with a beautiful view of the lake from your front porch! This home has a lot of potential to make it your dream home!

16. 2025-12-29
    listed $160,000 Active 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    Senior Park Community 55+. .This well maintained, spacious 2 bed, 2 bath LAKE FRONT home is move in ready! With fresh flooring throughout, beamed ceilings, custom window coverings, tinted windows, formal living room, family room and a bonus room, this home is perfect for entertaining. Located in the back of the home you will find a private screened in patio. Enjoy your morning coffee with a beautiful view of the lake from your front porch! This home has a lot of potential to make it your dream home!

17. 2017-07-21
    historical
18. 2017-07-19
    price $39,900
19. 2017-06-30
    price $44,400
20. 2017-06-05
    price $47,500
21. 2017-05-14
    status Active
22. 2017-05-08
    historical Hold Do Not Show
23. 2017-04-24
    status Active
24. 2017-04-21
    status Pending Sale
25. 2017-04-10
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $288 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$700/yr (+$58/mo · 242.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$288
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,460
• − Management: −$2,460
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $13,825
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,318
• After-tax cash flow: $11,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Jacinto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634440
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,560
• Composite: 20.94/100
• National rank: #8478
• State rank: #421 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Jacinto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #15889

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Jacinto, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 33,778
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,778
• Household income: $68,351
• Rent vs Own: 31.4% rent · 68.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 747.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% White 26% Two or more races 23% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 40% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.15%
• Current HPI: 407.8584
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+160.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $130,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-29 Listed $160,000 CRMLS
• 2017-07-21 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2017-07-19 Price Changed $39,900 CRMLS
• 2017-06-30 Price Changed $44,400 CRMLS
• 2017-06-05 Price Changed $47,500 CRMLS
• 2017-05-14 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2017-05-08 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2017-04-24 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2017-04-21 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-04-10 Listed $49,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $288 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.