2015 State Route 8 Hwy · Unadilla Forks, NY 13364

$139,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1893 8,712 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the serene countryside of Leonardsville, NY, & priced to Sell, this charming 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers peaceful living with modern comforts. Located on State Highway 8, the property boasts a beautiful country setting perfect for those seeking a retreat from city life. Step inside to discover spacious living areas, ideal for family gatherings or quiet nights in. The fully screened-in porch is a standout feature, perfect for enjoying the outdoors without the hassle of insects. A new roof adds value and peace of mind, ensuring low-maintenance living for years to come. With its generous 4 bedrooms, there's plenty of space for a growing family or guests. Whether you're lo

Key facts

• New roof
• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FULLY SCREENED-IN PORCH
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (0.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mount Markham Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #393 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1893 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $139,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1893 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.32%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $23,821
• Equity at exit: $62,950

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $75,181
• Equity at exit: $97,013

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13364

• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,399 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,449/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,262

Max offer price $139,999

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-02-23
   soldstatus $132,000
2. 2025-12-10
   status Pending
3. 2025-11-26
   listed $139,999 Active
4. 2025-03-10
   historical
5. 2024-10-07
   listed $169,999 Active
6. 2021-06-23
   soldstatus $85,000
7. 2021-06-23
   listed $92,500
8. 2021-06-09
   soldstatus $85,000
9. 2021-06-08
   soldstatus $85,000
10. 2021-06-08
    soldstatus $85,000
11. 2020-12-05
    listed $92,500
12. 2020-12-05
    listed $92,500
13. 2020-10-09
    historical
14. 2020-04-27
    status Active
15. 2020-03-25
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
16. 2020-03-21
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
17. 2019-10-08
    listed $94,900 Active
18. 2019-09-25
    historical
19. 2019-06-20
    price $82,900
20. 2018-09-13
    price $84,900
21. 2018-05-04
    listed $89,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,449 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,449 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,449
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,343
• − Management: −$1,343
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$962
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$231
• After-tax cash flow: $1,534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Markham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630930
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,456
• Composite: 42.3/100
• National rank: #3262
• State rank: #393 of 590 in NY

Livability — Unadilla Forks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 359

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,528 people
• By 2030: 66,599 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 59,814 · -14.0%
• By 2050: 52,842 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,167 · -43.7%
• By 2100: 28,442 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+15.9 2012: D+0.3 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+46.8% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2025-12-10 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $139,999 CNYIS
• 2025-03-10 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2024-10-07 Listed $169,999 CNYIS
• 2021-06-23 Listed $92,500 CNYIS
• 2021-06-23 Sold (MLS) $85,000 CNYIS
• 2021-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-08 Sold (MLS) $85,000 ODBOR
• 2021-06-08 Sold (MLS) $85,000 UNYREIS
• 2020-12-05 Listed $92,500 ODBOR
• 2020-12-05 Listed $92,500 UNYREIS
• 2020-10-09 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2020-04-27 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2020-03-25 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2020-03-21 Pending — CNYIS
• 2019-10-08 Listed $94,900 CNYIS
• 2019-09-25 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2019-06-20 Price Changed $82,900 CNYIS
• 2018-09-13 Price Changed $84,900 CNYIS
• 2018-05-04 Listed $89,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,449 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.