14202 NW 158th Ave · Alachua, FL 32615

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,238 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1976 0.41 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

An excellent opportunity on almost half an acre in the heart of the good life community! This 1970s-built concrete block home has a 3 bedroom/1.5 bath floorplan with a sunny living room, adjacent dining space with sliding doors to the rear patio, and a galley-style kitchen. There is also a bonus/flex space with its own entrance that could be utilized as an additional living room, home office, craft/hobby space, etc. Located less than a mile from charming Main Street Alachua with easy access to Gainesville via I-75 or US 441.

Key facts

• Sunny living room
• Galley style kitchen
• Half an acre

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• CONCRETE BLOCK HOME
• SUNNY LIVING ROOM
• ADJACENT DINING SPACE
• SLIDING DOORS TO REAR PATIO
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.41 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); Zoning: RSF-3
• HOA & community: No association; Development: Alachua Realty

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Fixer condition; One story; Faces south; Entry on main level
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approx. 1,472 total
• Exterior features: Patio; Private mailbox; Paved public-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $613 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#188 in FL, #2,996 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W. W. Irby Elementary School (379 students, 66% FRL); A. L. Mebane Middle School (math 36% / reading 40%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 332 students, 61% FRL); Santa Fe High School (math 35% / reading 56%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,154 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 402 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,101 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.91%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $19,738
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $67,950
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32615

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 402
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,517/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $613

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,230

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $681	-5% $647	+0% $613	+5% $579	+10% $545
Rent	-10% $455	-5% $534	+0% $613	+5% $692	+10% $772
Rate	-1.0pp $673	-0.5pp $644	base $613	+0.5pp $582	+1.0pp $550

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $119,900 Active
3. 2025-08-31
   historical
4. 2024-06-28
   status Active
5. 2024-05-22
   status Pending
6. 2024-05-06
   price $210,000
7. 2024-04-03
   listed $220,000 Active
8. 2024-01-02
   historical
9. 2023-09-01
   price $225,000
10. 2023-08-03
    listed $230,000 Active
11. 2022-06-14
    soldstatus $201,000
12. 2022-05-31
    soldstatus $201,000 Closed
13. 2022-04-03
    status Pending
14. 2022-03-29
    listed $182,000 Active
15. 2013-04-23
    soldstatus $47,000
16. 2012-06-21
    historical
17. 2012-01-30
    listed $69,900
18. 2000-10-16
    soldstatus $51,500
19. 1998-11-20
    soldstatus $21,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,517 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,517 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$3,517
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,926
• − Management: −$1,926
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $5,902
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,416
• After-tax cash flow: $5,941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alachua

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #188
• US rank: #2996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alachua, FL
• City population: 31,819
• Population (ZIP): 16,244

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.36%
• Current HPI: 280.2476
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+457.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-06 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-03 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-01 Price Changed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-03 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $201,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-31 Sold (MLS) $201,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-29 Listed $182,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 2012-06-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-30 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $51,500 Public Records
• 1998-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $21,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,517 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.