8627 Green Bliss · San Antonio, TX 78222

$174,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $129/sqft · 5% below area Est $184k · 5% under $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Pima - The first floor of this two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan that seamlessly connects an inviting family room, elegant dining room and chef-inspired kitchen. Upstairs, there are three bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite, which features a restful bedroom, en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Open floorplan
• Walk in closet

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $175k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($885/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sinclair El (math 13% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 92%, 721 students, 71% FRL); East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,749 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,500
• List price: $174,999
• Delta: -5.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8627 Green Bliss	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,360 (0%)	1mo	$174,999	$129	99
8567 Green Bliss	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,360 (0%)	1mo	$153,999	$113	99
8527 Green Bliss	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,360 (0%)	2mo	$153,999	$113	98
4722 Beryl Loop	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,419 (+4%)	2mo	$245,095	$173	59
5614 Salado Fls	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,182 (-13%)	2mo	$189,000	$160	58
5954 Celestite Bnd	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,359 (-0%)	1mo	$236,000	$174	57
4802 Turquoise Park	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,359 (-0%)	3mo	$236,500	$174	57
3530 Horizon Lk	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-6%)	2mo	$185,000	$145	52
5928 Lake Superior	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-7%)	3mo	$185,000	$147	49
4906 Topaz Bnd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+13%)	3mo	$259,990	$169	46
4726 Beryl Loop	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,543 (+14%)	3mo	$220,135	$143	38
5930 Cinnabar Cor	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,543 (+14%)	2mo	$244,499	$158	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-21,161
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,854
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78222

• Home prices YoY: -4.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,657

Max offer price $174,999

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $195	-5% $134	+0% $74	+5% $13	+10% $-47
Rent	-10% $-65	-5% $5	+0% $74	+5% $143	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $162	-0.5pp $118	base $74	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $-18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8523 Green Bliss San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,549	$1.01	17d	1	0.04mi
5365 Southcross Ranch Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1568	$85,000	$54.21	4d	1	0.37mi
4226 Toledo Mist San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.5	944	$1,600	$1.69	26d	1	0.41mi
5418 Tourmaline Loop San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,575	$1.13	6d	1	0.53mi
5823 Hematite Rim San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1524	$1,695	$1.11	26d	1	0.57mi
5231 Blue Rnch San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,690	$1.19	46d	1	0.65mi
5107 Blue Rnch San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,740	$1.14	26d	1	0.65mi
5227 Blue Rnch San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1239	$1,590	$1.28	26d	1	0.65mi
5119 Blue Rnch San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,615	$1.27	26d	1	0.65mi
5203 Blue Rnch San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,615	$1.27	26d	1	0.65mi
5011 Blue Rnch San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,740	$1.14	46d	1	0.65mi
5102 Blue Rnch San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,615	$1.27	26d	1	0.68mi
5130 Blue Rnch San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,740	$1.14	46d	1	0.68mi
5126 Blue Rnch San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,820	$1.01	46d	1	0.68mi
5106 Blue Rnch San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,820	$1.01	46d	1	0.68mi
5115 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1239	$1,550	$1.25	20d	1	0.70mi
5207 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1239	$1,590	$1.28	46d	1	0.70mi
5015 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,820	$1.01	13d	1	0.70mi
5107 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,575	$1.11	26d	1	0.70mi
5011 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1239	$1,590	$1.28	46d	1	0.70mi
5231 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1239	$1,590	$1.28	13d	1	0.70mi
5019 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,500	$1.18	26d	1	0.71mi
5215 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,595	$1.25	6d	1	0.71mi
4910 Sandstone Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1850	$1,750	$0.95	6d	1	0.73mi
4910 Sandstone Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1849	$1,750	$0.95	24d	1	0.73mi
5114 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,690	$1.19	26d	1	0.73mi
5214 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,690	$1.19	26d	1	0.73mi
5126 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,820	$1.01	26d	1	0.73mi
5226 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,820	$1.01	13d	1	0.73mi
5230 Jade Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,650	$1.08	26d	1	0.73mi
3510 Bottomless Lk San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,150	$1.08	46d	1	0.77mi
5118 Sandstone Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1311	$1,600	$1.22	1d	1	0.79mi
5962 Celestite Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,723	$1.45	1d	1	0.79mi
4734 Shale Cv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,725	$1.38	26d	1	0.84mi
3535 Honey Mdw San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1438	$1,400	$0.97	18d	1	0.84mi
6023 Lake Victoria St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,575	$1.15	15d	1	0.86mi
4742 Pico Pico St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1780	$1,850	$1.04	46d	1	0.96mi
5910 Sandy Lake St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,100	$1.51	46d	1	0.96mi
5322 Flying Hooves San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1604	$1,900	$1.18	22d	1	0.98mi
5322 Flying Hooves San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1604	$1,900	$1.18	1d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   The Pima - The first floor of this two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan that seamlessly connects an inviting family room, elegant dining room and chef-inspired kitchen. Upstairs, there are three bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite, which features a restful bedroom, en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-05-09
   price $174,999 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   The Pima - The first floor of this two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan that seamlessly connects an inviting family room, elegant dining room and chef-inspired kitchen. Upstairs, there are three bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite, which features a restful bedroom, en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-04-03
   listed $175,999 New 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   The Pima - The first floor of this two-story home is host to a spacious open floorplan that seamlessly connects an inviting family room, elegant dining room and chef-inspired kitchen. Upstairs, there are three bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite, which features a restful bedroom, en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion June 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,945
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$467
• After-tax cash flow: $1,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This two-story home is move-in ready with a spacious open floorplan, modern kitchen, and well-maintained exterior. It offers excellent curb appeal and is ideal for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,476
• Household income: $66,362
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 26% White 19% Black 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.18%
• Current HPI: 278.8429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — LERA
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $174,999 LERA
• 2026-04-03 Listed $175,999 LERA