1841 TROSPER Rd SW Unit 31B · Tumwater, WA 98512

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1979 $99/sqft · 24% above area Est $85k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLER SAYS GET IT GONE. .. 10K PRICE REDUCTION. REFRESHED AND READY FOR NEW OWNERS! Freshly painted inside and out. Two car carport and plenty of driveway parking. Interior features new carpet (with a really thick pad) and new laminate hardwood flooring that really looks sharp. All new lighting too! Kitchen refreshed with newly painted cabinets, new hardware and a sweet new sink/faucet plus new countertops. Big eating bar and built in china hutch in dining room. Has a sweet little pantry too. Primary bedroom with updated bath that features new commode, new sink, new fixtures and hardware. Main bath has new tub surround, new toilet, new fixtures and hardware. Laundry area off seco

Key facts

• New carpet
• New sink
• New hardware

Tags

• TWO CAR CARPORT
• NEW CARPET
• NEW LAMINATE HARDWOOD FLOORING
• NEWLY PAINTED CABINETS
• NEW HARDWARE
• NEW SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $966 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 2.7% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
• Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $105k implies a 1121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.44%
• DSCR: 2.75
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,000
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: 23.53%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1841 Trosper Rd SW #30	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (-9%)	9mo	$110,000	$115	78
1841 Trosper Rd SW #38	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	13mo	$37,000	$32	74
1841 Trosper Rd SW #25	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	14mo	$75,000	$65	73
5281 E Eagle Ln SW	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	15mo	$235,000	$223	73
930 Trosper Rd SW #34	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-2%)	11mo	$45,400	$44	68
930 Trosper Rd SW #3	0.33mi	2/2.0	952 (-10%)	1mo	$65,000	$68	68
930 Trosper Rd SW #78	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+6%)	3mo	$85,000	$76	65
5705 Littlerock Rd SW #41	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,136 (+8%)	4mo	$85,000	$75	63
930 Trosper Rd #135	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,188 (+12%)	12mo	$132,000	$111	56
930 Trosper Rd SW #60	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,024 (-3%)	23mo	$44,000	$43	54
5081 E Gray Sea Eagle Ln SW	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,176 (+11%)	13mo	$100,000	$85	51
930 Trosper Rd SW #37	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	20mo	$100,000	$87	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $43,003
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.76×
• Total profit: $110,518
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98512

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,048 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $682/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $966

Break-even live

Break-even rent $824

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,026	-5% $996	+0% $966	+5% $937	+10% $907
Rent	-10% $805	-5% $885	+0% $966	+5% $1,047	+10% $1,128
Rate	-1.0pp $1,019	-0.5pp $993	base $966	+0.5pp $939	+1.0pp $911

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1619 Trosper Rd SW Tumwater, WA	3.0	2.5	1295	$2,495	$1.93	21d	1	0.21mi
1978 Trosper Rd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,428	$2.31	44d	3	0.25mi
1978 Trosper Rd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1106	$2,246	$2.03	14d	4	0.25mi
4822 Rural Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,995	$1.95	21d	1	0.54mi
1517 Bishop Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	669	$1,930	$2.88	14d	1	0.54mi
1500 Lake Park Dr SW #29 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.5	1428	$1,850	$1.30	21d	1	0.56mi
6705 Linderson Way SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,038	$2.26	14d	6	0.68mi
6805 Littlerock Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	44d	1	0.72mi
301 T St SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	589	$1,635	$2.78	14d	5	0.75mi
215 Pinehurst Dr SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0–2.5	759	$1,950	$2.57	14d	4	0.78mi
214 65th Way SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	21d	1	0.89mi
829 Israel Rd SW Apt A4 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	14d	1	0.92mi
829 Israel Rd SW Apt B6 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	44d	1	0.92mi
801 Israel Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.5	965	$1,860	$1.93	14d	2	0.98mi
6504 Capitol Blvd SE Tumwater, WA	1.0	1.0	974	$2,125	$2.18	14d	1	1.00mi
220 Israel Rd SW Unit G8 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.5	968	$1,975	$2.04	44d	1	1.01mi
151 Cherry Ln SE Tumwater, WA	3.0	1.0	874	$2,195	$2.51	21d	1	1.08mi
811 S 3rd Ave SW Unit B Tumwater, WA	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,300	$1.72	44d	1	1.17mi
1704 Barnes Blvd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	920	$2,004	$2.18	14d	35	1.41mi
1992 Ridgeview Loop SW Unit 204 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	804	$1,700	$2.11	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $105,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,000 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    price $114,000
17. 2026-03-06
    price $119,000
18. 2026-02-06
    listed $129,000 Active
19. 2014-06-10
    soldstatus $8,600 Sold
20. 2014-05-27
    status Pending Inspection
21. 2014-05-21
    listed $9,500 Active
22. 2012-05-01
    historical
23. 2012-05-01
    soldstatus $17,500 Sold
24. 2012-04-23
    status Pending
25. 2012-04-02
    price $19,500
26. 2012-02-10
    listed $22,000 Active
27. 2011-03-29
    status Pending
28. 2011-03-29
    soldstatus $21,500 Sold
29. 2011-03-15
    status Pending Inspection
30. 2011-02-22
    listed $25,000 Active
31. 2003-06-02
    soldstatus $14,500
32. 2002-11-21
    listed $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $682 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,029 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$347/yr (+$29/mo · 50.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$682
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,966
• − Management: −$1,966
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $10,496
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,519
• After-tax cash flow: $9,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tumwater School District
• NCES district ID: 5309100
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,209
• Composite: 56.38/100
• National rank: #2477
• State rank: #37 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tumwater

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #700

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tumwater, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 46,937
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,864
• Household income: $101,530
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.18%
• Current HPI: 347.121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+470.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $114,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $119,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $129,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Sold (MLS) $8,600 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-21 Listed $9,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-01 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-01 Sold (MLS) $17,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-23 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-02 Price Changed $19,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-10 Listed $22,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-29 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-29 Sold (MLS) $21,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-22 Listed $25,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-06-02 Sold (MLS) $14,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-11-21 Listed $20,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $682 · +290.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.