20191 Bella Gardens Cir · Hammond, LA 70454

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,843 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2012 $149/sqft · at area comps Est $296k · 7% under $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom, two bath home in Blythwood Estates! Energy smart home with an open floor plan with carpeted bedrooms and living room. Gas fireplace in living room. Garden tub in master bathroom with separate shower, including large walk-in closet. Double car garage. This property offers a spacious, fenced backyard great for entertaining. Additional highlights include a tankless water heater and other energy-efficient upgrades.

Key facts

• Energy smart home
• Open floor plan
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• ENERGY SMART HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GAS FIREPLACE
• GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $254 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.0% in Hammond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#77 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute D+, schools D.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 526 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $171k; list at $275k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,585 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.95%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,170
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -7.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42321 Cy Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,887 (+2%)	5mo	$258,000	$137	86
42375 Wood Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,887 (+2%)	4mo	$255,000	$135	84
42467 Harlan Pl	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,875 (+2%)	6mo	$279,900	$149	78
20278 Bella Gardens Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,655 (-10%)	3mo	$215,000	$130	75
20316 Clemson Way	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,858 (+1%)	2mo	$279,900	$151	74
20291 Clemson Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,718 (-7%)	9mo	$258,000	$150	65
20151 Carolina Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,887 (+2%)	5mo	$260,000	$138	65
42059 Wood Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,825 (-1%)	9mo	$253,675	$139	64
19078 Greenleaf Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,714 (-7%)	7mo	$245,000	$143	63
19075 Greenleaf Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0	2,030 (+10%)	4mo	$277,000	$136	62
20195 Deveron Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,718 (-7%)	9mo	$250,000	$146	60
42016 Wood Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,875 (+2%)	3mo	$274,500	$146	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-34,202
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-31,692
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70454

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,486 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,577/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,165

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $409	-5% $332	+0% $254	+5% $176	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $57	-5% $156	+0% $254	+5% $352	+10% $450
Rate	-1.0pp $392	-0.5pp $324	base $254	+0.5pp $182	+1.0pp $110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43293 Quiet Lake Dr Hammond, LA	4.0	2.0	1850	$3,840	$2.08	44d	1	1.00mi
19216 Dr John Lambert Dr Hammond, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,808	$1.82	14d	10	1.15mi
42318 Andrea Ln Ponchatoula, LA	3.0	2.0	1291	$1,800	$1.39	44d	1	1.29mi
20175 Kingland Dr Hammond, LA	3.0	2.5	2300	$2,300	$1.00	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $275,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 60 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 59 DOM
19. 2026-04-20
    price $275,000 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Three bedroom, two bath home in Blythwood Estates! Energy smart home with an open floor plan with carpeted bedrooms and living room. Gas fireplace in living room. Garden tub in master bathroom with separate shower, including large walk-in closet. Double car garage. This property offers a spacious, fenced backyard great for entertaining. Additional highlights include a tankless water heater and other energy-efficient upgrades.

20. 2026-04-20
    price $275,000 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Three bedroom, two bath home in Blythwood Estates! Energy smart home with an open floor plan with carpeted bedrooms and living room. Gas fireplace in living room. Garden tub in master bathroom with separate shower, including large walk-in closet. Double car garage. This property offers a spacious, fenced backyard great for entertaining. Additional highlights include a tankless water heater and other energy-efficient upgrades.

21. 2026-04-01
    listed $275,500 Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Three bedroom, two bath home in Blythwood Estates! Energy smart home with an open floor plan with carpeted bedrooms and living room. Gas fireplace in living room. Garden tub in master bathroom with separate shower, including large walk-in closet. Double car garage. This property offers a spacious, fenced backyard great for entertaining. Additional highlights include a tankless water heater and other energy-efficient upgrades.

22. 2026-03-14
    listed $275,500 Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Three bedroom, two bath home in Blythwood Estates! Energy smart home with an open floor plan with carpeted bedrooms and living room. Gas fireplace in living room. Garden tub in master bathroom with separate shower, including large walk-in closet. Double car garage. This property offers a spacious, fenced backyard great for entertaining. Additional highlights include a tankless water heater and other energy-efficient upgrades.

23. 2013-05-29
    soldstatus $171,000
24. 2012-02-01
    listed $171,000
25. 2012-02-01
    listed $171,000
26. 2008-07-24
    listed $36,000
27. 2008-07-24
    listed $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,577
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,386
• − Management: −$2,386
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$1,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$375
• After-tax cash flow: $3,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Hammond

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #77
• US rank: #8868

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tangipahoa Parish · 85,958 people
• City population: 51,394
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• Population (ZIP): 34,564
• Household income: $71,611
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 479.0

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.55%
• Current HPI: 129.6069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.66%
• Metro: Hammond, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+663.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $275,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $275,000 GSREIN
• 2026-04-01 Listed $275,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $275,500 GSREIN
• 2013-05-29 Sold (MLS) $171,000 GSREIN
• 2012-02-01 Listed $171,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2012-02-01 Listed $171,000 GSREIN
• 2008-07-24 Listed $36,000 GSREIN
• 2008-07-24 Listed $36,000 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,577 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.