9929 Old Mill Rd NE · Navassa, NC 28451

$289,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,346 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2007 0.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully updated ranch home features new engineered wood floors throughout the main living areas and plush new carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has been refreshed with quartz countertops, a stylish tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Bathrooms have been updated with quartz vanities and tile floors, offering a clean, modern look. Fresh paint, along with new hardware and fixtures throughout, adds to the home's move-in ready appeal. Enjoy the large, private fenced-in backyard--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or outdoor activities.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Tile floors
• Quartz vanities

Tags

• ENGINEERED WOOD FLOORS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ VANITIES
• TILE FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: Na-R-10
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Deck; Back yard fence; Shed(s); Public maintained paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen/dining room combination; Kitchen island; Quartz counters; Double vanity; Separate shower; Soaking tub; Bathtub/shower combination; Walk-in closet(s); Walk-in shower; Primary bedroom on the main level; Updated / remodeled; One fireplace in the family room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-119/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Navassa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#141 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Brunswick County Early College (math 98% / reading 98%, grade A+, #1 of 535 statewide, top 0%, 363 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 98% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+52 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Brunswick County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1213 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,865 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-51,586
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-61,495
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28451

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1213
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,219 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,459/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,231

Max offer price $288,143

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $72	+0% $-10	+5% $-92	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-185	-5% $-98	+0% $-10	+5% $78	+10% $165
Rate	-1.0pp $136	-0.5pp $64	base $-10	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-14
   historical Active Under Contract 561-char remark

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   This beautifully updated ranch home features new engineered wood floors throughout the main living areas and plush new carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has been refreshed with quartz countertops, a stylish tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Bathrooms have been updated with quartz vanities and tile floors, offering a clean, modern look. Fresh paint, along with new hardware and fixtures throughout, adds to the home's move-in ready appeal. Enjoy the large, private fenced-in backyard--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or outdoor activities.

2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   This beautifully updated ranch home features new engineered wood floors throughout the main living areas and plush new carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has been refreshed with quartz countertops, a stylish tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Bathrooms have been updated with quartz vanities and tile floors, offering a clean, modern look. Fresh paint, along with new hardware and fixtures throughout, adds to the home's move-in ready appeal. Enjoy the large, private fenced-in backyard--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or outdoor activities.

3. 2026-05-13
   status Active 561-char remark

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   This beautifully updated ranch home features new engineered wood floors throughout the main living areas and plush new carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has been refreshed with quartz countertops, a stylish tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Bathrooms have been updated with quartz vanities and tile floors, offering a clean, modern look. Fresh paint, along with new hardware and fixtures throughout, adds to the home's move-in ready appeal. Enjoy the large, private fenced-in backyard--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or outdoor activities.

4. 2026-05-13
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   This beautifully updated ranch home features new engineered wood floors throughout the main living areas and plush new carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has been refreshed with quartz countertops, a stylish tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Bathrooms have been updated with quartz vanities and tile floors, offering a clean, modern look. Fresh paint, along with new hardware and fixtures throughout, adds to the home's move-in ready appeal. Enjoy the large, private fenced-in backyard--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or outdoor activities.

5. 2026-05-04
   historical Active Under Contract 561-char remark

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   This beautifully updated ranch home features new engineered wood floors throughout the main living areas and plush new carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has been refreshed with quartz countertops, a stylish tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Bathrooms have been updated with quartz vanities and tile floors, offering a clean, modern look. Fresh paint, along with new hardware and fixtures throughout, adds to the home's move-in ready appeal. Enjoy the large, private fenced-in backyard--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or outdoor activities.

6. 2026-05-04
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   This beautifully updated ranch home features new engineered wood floors throughout the main living areas and plush new carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has been refreshed with quartz countertops, a stylish tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Bathrooms have been updated with quartz vanities and tile floors, offering a clean, modern look. Fresh paint, along with new hardware and fixtures throughout, adds to the home's move-in ready appeal. Enjoy the large, private fenced-in backyard--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or outdoor activities.

7. 2026-04-24
   listed $289,900 Active 561-char remark

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   This beautifully updated ranch home features new engineered wood floors throughout the main living areas and plush new carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has been refreshed with quartz countertops, a stylish tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Bathrooms have been updated with quartz vanities and tile floors, offering a clean, modern look. Fresh paint, along with new hardware and fixtures throughout, adds to the home's move-in ready appeal. Enjoy the large, private fenced-in backyard--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or outdoor activities.

8. 2026-04-24
   listed $289,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   This beautifully updated ranch home features new engineered wood floors throughout the main living areas and plush new carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen has been refreshed with quartz countertops, a stylish tile backsplash, and stainless steel appliances. Bathrooms have been updated with quartz vanities and tile floors, offering a clean, modern look. Fresh paint, along with new hardware and fixtures throughout, adds to the home's move-in ready appeal. Enjoy the large, private fenced-in backyard--perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or outdoor activities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,459 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$918/yr (+$76/mo · 62.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$1,459
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,130
• − Management: −$2,130
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$5,217
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,252
• After-tax cash flow: $1,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Navassa

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #8091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Navassa, NC
• County: Brunswick County · 131,536 people
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• Population (ZIP): 46,933
• Household income: $81,481
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1049.0

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.99%
• Current HPI: 148.6217
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Contingent — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-05-13 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-13 Relisted — TMLS
• 2026-05-04 Contingent — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $289,900 TMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $289,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,459 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.