17402 Fx Ball · Elmendorf, TX 78112

$140,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 126 Days on market

Built 2016 1.00 ac lot $79/sqft · 33% below area Est $210k · 33% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this delightful single-story home situated on a generous lot in the quiet Elmendorf community. Featuring a practical floor plan, abundant natural light, and welcoming outdoor space, this home is ideal for everyday living as well as entertaining. Conveniently located with quick access to Loop 1604, I-37, and nearby shopping, dining, and schools, it offers both comfort and accessibility. The peaceful setting and ample potential make this property a great option for homeowners and investors alike. The home has been retrofitted and is FHA approved. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Quick access to i-37
• Outdoor space

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• GENEROUS LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• QUICK ACCESS TO LOOP 1604
• QUICK ACCESS TO I-37
• NEARBY SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $174 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.6% in Elmendorf — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,189 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 442 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $737 of equity ($968 loan paydown + $-231 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.08%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,915
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -33.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,026
• Equity at exit: $39,499

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $37,102
• Equity at exit: $46,570

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78112

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 442
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,379

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7663 Stud Dr Elmendorf, TX	3.0	2.0	1233	$1,600	$1.30	1d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $140,000 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-04-21
    price $140,000 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Discover this delightful single-story home situated on a generous lot in the quiet Elmendorf community. Featuring a practical floor plan, abundant natural light, and welcoming outdoor space, this home is ideal for everyday living as well as entertaining. Conveniently located with quick access to Loop 1604, I-37, and nearby shopping, dining, and schools, it offers both comfort and accessibility. The peaceful setting and ample potential make this property a great option for homeowners and investors alike. The home has been retrofitted and is FHA approved. Schedule your showing today!

15. 2026-03-27
    status Back on Market 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Discover this delightful single-story home situated on a generous lot in the quiet Elmendorf community. Featuring a practical floor plan, abundant natural light, and welcoming outdoor space, this home is ideal for everyday living as well as entertaining. Conveniently located with quick access to Loop 1604, I-37, and nearby shopping, dining, and schools, it offers both comfort and accessibility. The peaceful setting and ample potential make this property a great option for homeowners and investors alike. The home has been retrofitted and is FHA approved. Schedule your showing today!

16. 2026-03-17
    historical Active Option 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Discover this delightful single-story home situated on a generous lot in the quiet Elmendorf community. Featuring a practical floor plan, abundant natural light, and welcoming outdoor space, this home is ideal for everyday living as well as entertaining. Conveniently located with quick access to Loop 1604, I-37, and nearby shopping, dining, and schools, it offers both comfort and accessibility. The peaceful setting and ample potential make this property a great option for homeowners and investors alike. The home has been retrofitted and is FHA approved. Schedule your showing today!

17. 2026-03-01
    price $144,900 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Discover this delightful single-story home situated on a generous lot in the quiet Elmendorf community. Featuring a practical floor plan, abundant natural light, and welcoming outdoor space, this home is ideal for everyday living as well as entertaining. Conveniently located with quick access to Loop 1604, I-37, and nearby shopping, dining, and schools, it offers both comfort and accessibility. The peaceful setting and ample potential make this property a great option for homeowners and investors alike. The home has been retrofitted and is FHA approved. Schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-02-12
    listed $150,000 New 588-char remark

    Show marketing remark (588 chars)

    Discover this delightful single-story home situated on a generous lot in the quiet Elmendorf community. Featuring a practical floor plan, abundant natural light, and welcoming outdoor space, this home is ideal for everyday living as well as entertaining. Conveniently located with quick access to Loop 1604, I-37, and nearby shopping, dining, and schools, it offers both comfort and accessibility. The peaceful setting and ample potential make this property a great option for homeowners and investors alike. The home has been retrofitted and is FHA approved. Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,098 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$464/yr (+$39/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$2,168
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$52
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13
• After-tax cash flow: $2,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elmendorf

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1189
• US rank: #20804

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmendorf, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,959

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 39% White 24% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 64%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Current HPI: 276.3302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $140,000 LERA
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-03-17 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $144,900 LERA
• 2026-02-12 Listed $150,000 LERA

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,098 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.