12929 Portulaca Dr #310 · Creve Coeur, MO 63146

$184,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,222 sqft · Condo public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1984 $151/sqft · 8% above area Est $170k · 8% over $422/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this bright and spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo with 1,200 square feet designed for easy living. Enjoy the convenience of in-unit laundry, secure underground parking, and a fantastic location close to everything you need. A perfect blend of comfort, space, and convenience.

Key facts

• In-unit laundry
• $422 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY
• SECURE UNDERGROUND PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-174 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.7% in Creve Coeur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#16 in MO, #1,519 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ross Elem. (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 385 students, 32% FRL); Northeast Middle (math 33% / reading 47%, grade F, #185 of 391 statewide, top 48%, 703 students, 24% FRL); North High (math 35% / reading 70%, grade C-, #89 of 521 statewide, top 17%, 1,074 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 14% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Parkway C-2 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,739 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.04%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,325
• List price: $184,500
• Delta: 8.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $84,294
• Equity at exit: $166,212

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $247,869
• Equity at exit: $358,443

Cash invested: $51,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63146

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,820 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$968
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,746/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$422
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,040

Max offer price $153,739

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-70	-5% $-122	+0% $-174	+5% $-226	+10% $-279
Rent	-10% $-318	-5% $-246	+0% $-174	+5% $-102	+10% $-30
Rate	-1.0pp $-81	-0.5pp $-127	base $-174	+0.5pp $-222	+1.0pp $-271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,125
• Closing costs: $5,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12806 Willowyck Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,500	$1.72	45d	1	0.70mi
12545 Markaire Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–4.0	1420	$2,188	$1.54	12d	5	0.73mi
1231 Creve Coeur Crossing Ln Unit I Chesterfield, MO	2.0	2.0	868	$1,395	$1.61	0d	1	0.83mi
2037 Chablis Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	780	$1,588	$2.04	3d	68	1.09mi
1173 Pompeii Dr Chesterfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,799	$1.89	0d	24	1.12mi
1951 Oberlin Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	993	$1,684	$1.70	0d	24	1.31mi
502 Broadmoor Dr Unit 506 Chesterfield, MO	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,250	$1.50	25d	1	1.37mi
506 Broadmoor Dr Chesterfield, MO	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,250	$1.50	45d	1	1.38mi
2207 Summerhouse Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,304	$1.62	0d	20	1.44mi
1895 Boulder Springs Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1083	$2,354	$2.17	0d	6	1.45mi
616 Broadmoor Dr Unit C Chesterfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,795	$1.60	9d	1	1.46mi
807 Cross Creek Dr Creve Coeur, MO	3.0	1.0–2.5	1066	$1,609	$1.51	0d	36	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $422 · $5,064/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $184,500 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,500 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,500 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,500 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,500 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,500 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,500 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $184,500 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $187,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $187,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $187,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $187,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $187,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $187,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $187,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-10
    price $187,000 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Welcome home to this bright and spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo with 1,200 square feet designed for easy living. Enjoy the convenience of in-unit laundry, secure underground parking, and a fantastic location close to everything you need. A perfect blend of comfort, space, and convenience.

17. 2026-02-12
    listed $189,900 Active 290-char remark

    Show marketing remark (290 chars)

    Welcome home to this bright and spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo with 1,200 square feet designed for easy living. Enjoy the convenience of in-unit laundry, secure underground parking, and a fantastic location close to everything you need. A perfect blend of comfort, space, and convenience.

18. 2025-12-06
    price $189,900
19. 2025-09-25
    price $195,000
20. 2025-08-26
    price $199,900
21. 2025-06-03
    listed $205,000 Active
22. 2025-05-28
    historical
23. 2019-09-06
    soldstatus $135,000
24. 2019-08-29
    soldstatus Closed
25. 2019-08-12
    status Pending
26. 2019-07-08
    status Active
27. 2019-06-22
    status Pending
28. 2019-06-05
    price $139,900
29. 2019-05-10
    listed $142,900 Active
30. 2015-01-15
    soldstatus $90,000
31. 2015-01-12
    soldstatus
32. 2014-08-08
    listed $99,500
33. 1996-08-22
    soldstatus $94,000
34. 1985-04-01
    soldstatus $83,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,746 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,790 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$43/yr (+$4/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,335
• − Property taxes: −$1,746
• − Insurance: −$922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,747
• − Management: −$1,747
• − HOA: −$5,064
• − Depreciation: −$5,367
• Taxable loss: −$5,089
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,221
• After-tax cash flow: $-868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkway C-2
• NCES district ID: 2923580
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $83,551
• Composite: 50.5/100
• National rank: #1851
• State rank: #18 of 324 in MO

Livability — Creve Coeur

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1519

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 20,932
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,678
• Household income: $84,756
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 17% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.10%
• Current HPI: 711.49
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+123.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $187,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listed $189,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $189,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $195,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $199,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-03 Listed $205,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-28 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-29 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-12 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-08 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-22 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-05 Price Changed $139,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-10 Listed $142,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-12 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-08 Listed $99,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 1985-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $83,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,746 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.