171 Ridge Rd · Pembroke, GA 31308

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 173 Days on market

Built 2023 1.40 ac lot $200/sqft · 34% above area Est $172k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MUST SEE! Welcome home to this like new 3 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home. Modern looking kitchen with sink in the island and features a double vanity in the Master Bath. Nestled on over an acre of land in Bryan County. Short Commute to Fort Stewart, Savannah, Statesboro and Pooler. And just minutes from the Hyundai Mega Site.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Private well
• Private septic

Tags

• MODERN LOOKING KITCHEN
• DOUBLE VANITY
• PRIVATE WELL
• PRIVATE SEPTIC
• OVER AN ACRE OF LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.2% in Pembroke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#144 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Bryan County (rural): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #14 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bryan County Elementary School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade F, #370 of 1,228 statewide, top 30%, 962 students, 65% FRL); Bryan County Middle School (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #206 of 470 statewide, top 45%, 400 students, 68% FRL); Bryan County High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #184 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 608 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 29% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bryan County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 510 units permitted in Bryan County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bryan County population projected at +64% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,106 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.59%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,849
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: 33.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-25,094
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-6,419
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31308

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,011 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,130/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,767

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $323	-5% $258	+0% $193	+5% $127	+10% $62
Rent	-10% $34	-5% $113	+0% $193	+5% $272	+10% $351
Rate	-1.0pp $308	-0.5pp $251	base $193	+0.5pp $133	+1.0pp $72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $230,000 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 162 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $230,000 Active 161 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $230,000 Active 160 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 159 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 152 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $230,000 Active 151 DOM
19. 2025-12-30
    listed $230,000 Active 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    MUST SEE! Welcome home to this like new 3 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home. Modern looking kitchen with sink in the island and features a double vanity in the Master Bath. Nestled on over an acre of land in Bryan County. Short Commute to Fort Stewart, Savannah, Statesboro and Pooler. And just minutes from the Hyundai Mega Site.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,130 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$986/yr (+$82/mo · 87.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,130
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,931
• − Management: −$1,931
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$1,583
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$380
• After-tax cash flow: $2,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryan County
• NCES district ID: 1300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,465
• Composite: 44.99/100
• National rank: #2701
• State rank: #14 of 174 in GA

Livability — Pembroke

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #9707

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,814

Population outlook (Bryan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,980 people
• By 2030: 51,583 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 63,184 · +37.4%
• By 2050: 75,400 · +64.0%
• By 2075: 105,363 · +129.1%
• By 2100: 124,959 · +171.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bryan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.3) · D 31.6% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.3pp toward D · 2008: -42.6pp · 2024: -36.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.3 2020: R+35.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+42.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.60%
• Current HPI: 249.2442
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Listed $230,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+19.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,130 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.