5407 Oak Grove Rd · Howell, MI 48855

$187,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 513 Days on market

Built 1960 0.51 ac lot $206/sqft · 14% below area Est $218k · 14% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Opportunity to own this single-family home built in 1960 featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms. * * * SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. * * * Occupied Reserve Auction--The seller does not have access to the property. The property is occupied and the occupants are not to be disturbed or contacted under any circumstances. Interior inspections are not available and property is being sold as is. Please do not trespass. "As is" sale with no contingencies or inspections. Buyer will be responsible for obtaining possession of the property upon closing.

Key facts

• 0.51 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.6% in Howell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#107 in MI, #2,598 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Howell Public Schools (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #116 of 540 in MI (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 488 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 513 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $89k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $165,352 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 513 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.11%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,066
• List price: $187,900
• Delta: -13.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5500 Oak Grove Rd	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+10%)	7mo	$160,000	$160	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-21,698
• Equity at exit: $28,017

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,474
• Equity at exit: $16,246

Cash invested: $52,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48855

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,873 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$985
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,355/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,700

Max offer price $187,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,975
• Closing costs: $5,637
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $187,900 Active 513 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $187,900 Active 512 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $187,900 Active 511 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $187,900 Active 510 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $187,900 Active 508 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $187,900 Active 507 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $187,900 Active 504 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $187,900 Active 503 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $187,900 Active 502 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $187,900 Active 499 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $187,900 Active 498 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $187,900 Active 497 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $187,900 Active 496 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $187,900 Active 495 DOM
15. 2025-04-03
    price $187,900 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Great Opportunity to own this single-family home built in 1960 featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms. * * * SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. * * * Occupied Reserve Auction--The seller does not have access to the property. The property is occupied and the occupants are not to be disturbed or contacted under any circumstances. Interior inspections are not available and property is being sold as is. Please do not trespass. "As is" sale with no contingencies or inspections. Buyer will be responsible for obtaining possession of the property upon closing.

16. 2025-04-02
    price $187,900 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Great Opportunity to own this single-family home built in 1960 featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms. * * * SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. * * * Occupied Reserve Auction--The seller does not have access to the property. The property is occupied and the occupants are not to be disturbed or contacted under any circumstances. Interior inspections are not available and property is being sold as is. Please do not trespass. "As is" sale with no contingencies or inspections. Buyer will be responsible for obtaining possession of the property upon closing.

17. 2025-01-21
    listed $276,700 Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Great Opportunity to own this single-family home built in 1960 featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms. * * * SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. * * * Occupied Reserve Auction--The seller does not have access to the property. The property is occupied and the occupants are not to be disturbed or contacted under any circumstances. Interior inspections are not available and property is being sold as is. Please do not trespass. "As is" sale with no contingencies or inspections. Buyer will be responsible for obtaining possession of the property upon closing.

18. 2025-01-21
    listed $276,700 Active 742-char remark

    Show marketing remark (742 chars)

    Great Opportunity to own this single-family home built in 1960 featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathrooms. * * * SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. * * * Occupied Reserve Auction--The seller does not have access to the property. The property is occupied and the occupants are not to be disturbed or contacted under any circumstances. Interior inspections are not available and property is being sold as is. Please do not trespass. "As is" sale with no contingencies or inspections. Buyer will be responsible for obtaining possession of the property upon closing.

19. 2025-01-11
    historical
20. 2025-01-11
    historical
21. 2024-11-23
    listed $198,500 Active
22. 2024-11-23
    listed $198,500 Active
23. 2024-11-22
    historical
24. 2024-11-22
    historical
25. 2022-04-29
    soldstatus $207,000
26. 2022-04-19
    soldstatus $207,000 Sold
27. 2022-04-19
    soldstatus $207,000 Closed
28. 2022-03-10
    status Pending
29. 2022-03-10
    status Pending
30. 2022-03-02
    listed $214,900 Active
31. 2022-03-02
    listed $214,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,355 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,355 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,525
• − Property taxes: −$3,355
• − Insurance: −$940
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,798
• − Management: −$1,798
• − Depreciation: −$5,466
• Taxable loss: −$1,405
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$337
• After-tax cash flow: $1,975/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Howell Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2618720
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,453
• Composite: 41.42/100
• National rank: #3473
• State rank: #116 of 540 in MI

Livability — Howell

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #2598

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 48,014
• Population (ZIP): 16,625

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,920 people
• By 2030: 209,173 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 216,878 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 217,485 · +7.2%
• By 2075: 217,590 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 197,095 · -2.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.9) · D 37.4% · R 61.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -23.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.9 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+23.3 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.08%
• Current HPI: 215.0884
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-12.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $187,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $187,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-01-21 Listed $276,700 REALCOMP
• 2025-01-21 Listed $276,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-11 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-11 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-11-23 Listed $198,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-11-23 Listed $198,500 REALCOMP
• 2024-11-22 Coming Soon — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-11-22 Coming Soon — REALCOMP
• 2022-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $207,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-19 Sold (MLS) $207,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-04-19 Sold (MLS) $207,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-03-10 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-03-10 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-03-02 Listed $214,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-03-02 Listed $214,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,355 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.