2621 Prescott Rd #159 · Modesto, CA 95350

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,809 sqft · Manufactured · 20 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $148k · 36% under $915/mo HOA · 37% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the highly desirable Friendly Village of Modesto, a vibrant 55+ active community offering a peaceful, park-like atmosphere paired with resort-style amenities and an engaging lifestyle. Residents enjoy weekly social events, a heated pool and spa, fitness center, clubhouse, movie nights, monthly dinners, mini putting green, and a pet-friendly environment where most animals are welcome. This rare and spacious 1,809 sq. ft. home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with an open-concept floorplan designed for comfortable living and entertaining. The generously sized primary suite offers the perfect private retreat to relax and unwind. Situated on a desirable corner lot, this home provi

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Clubhouse
• Movie nights

Tags

• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• HEATED POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• CLUBHOUSE
• MOVIE NIGHTS
• MINI PUTTING GREEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Friendly Village
• Financial info: Land lease (space rent) applies; Land lease amount / association fee: $915 monthly
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $915; Association amenities include clubhouse and public transit nearby; Association fee covers management and grounds maintenance; Located in a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Security: Smoke detector; Carbon monoxide detector
• Utilities: Public sewer; 220 volts in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide; Original condition
• Construction: Metal skirting; Manufacturer: Kaufman/Broad; Make: Bainbridge
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Covered deck; Railed porch; Porch steps; Regular-shaped lot; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Dishwasher; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Disposal; Dishwasher; Laminate countertops; Great room; Dining/living combo; Smoke detector; Carbon monoxide detector
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside (220V available)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Stanislaus Union Elementary (urban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #344 of 517 in CA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,575 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.37%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,338
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2621 Prescott #189	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,740 (-4%)	2mo	$65,000	$37	84
2621 Prescott Rd #17	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,573 (-13%)	2mo	$118,000	$75	77
2621 Prescott Rd #201	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,776 (-2%)	24mo	$110,000	$62	72
2621 Prescott #161	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,716 (-5%)	22mo	$140,000	$82	68
2113 Barrington Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-10%)	1mo	$300,000	$185	64
2124 Key West Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-10%)	1mo	$337,000	$208	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $9,270
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $36,329
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95350

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,505 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$915
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,989

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3200 Hahn Dr Modesto, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1262	$2,631	$2.08	3d	5	0.80mi
1809 La Corunna Pl Modesto, CA	2.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	14d	1	0.82mi
3904 Breda Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,400	$1.43	21d	1	1.14mi
3830 Carver Rd Modesto, CA	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,950	$1.42	23d	1	1.16mi
1701 Linwood Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,050	$1.37	14d	1	1.16mi
2704 Snyder Ave Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1806	$2,495	$1.38	11d	1	1.29mi
1836 Brahms Way Modesto, CA	4.0	2.0	1640	$2,645	$1.61	23d	1	1.36mi
1836 Brahms Way Modesto, CA	4.0	2.0	1640	$2,645	$1.61	14d	1	1.36mi
3620 Historic Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1569	$2,800	$1.78	11d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $915 · $10,980/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-05-30
    listed $95,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,405
• − Management: −$2,405
• − HOA: −$10,980
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $4,283
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,028
• After-tax cash flow: $3,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stanislaus Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637950
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,731
• Composite: 26.11/100
• National rank: #7286
• State rank: #344 of 517 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,136
• Household income: $75,621
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2163.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Asian 6% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -555.05%
• Current HPI: 307.9532
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $95,000 BAREIS