3210 Bolt Rope Dr · Texas City, TX 77539

$299,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,031 sqft · SingleFamily · 82 Days on market

Built 2026 6,600 sqft lot $118/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Kingston Plan in the heart of Lago Mar’s resort-style community! This beautifully designed single-story home offers 2,031 sq. ft. of living space with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. As you step inside, you’re greeted by two spacious secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom. The secondary bath includes durable vinyl flooring, a convenient linen nook, and a tub and shower combo. At the end of the foyer, the home opens into a bright, open-concept layout with the family room, dining area, and L-shaped kitchen flowing together, ideal for hosting or relaxing after a day at the lagoon. The kitchen features extra counter space, a large island, pantry, and stai

Key facts

• 6,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by Principle Mgmt; Annual association fee; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Leased security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding construction; Built by D.R. Horton
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Covered deck/patio; Patio; Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (20x14); Bedroom on first floor (12x11); Bedroom on second floor (12x11); Bedroom on second floor (12x11); 5 total rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace (1); Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen and family room combo; Pantry; Separate shower; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $353,394.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-970/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $282k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elva C Lobit Middle (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 582 students, 52% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 664 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $281,990 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $353,394
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14117 Baikal Manor Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	2,063 (+2%)	1mo	$312,990	$152	90
14006 Baikal Manor Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	2,126 (+5%)	1mo	$325,990	$153	78
3315 Hidden Mist Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,160 (+6%)	1mo	$344,990	$160	76
14121 Baikal Manor Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,214 (+9%)	1mo	$349,990	$158	74
3026 Banyan Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,850 (-9%)	1mo	$345,900	$187	72
14001 Baikal Manor Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,804 (-11%)	1mo	$321,990	$178	68
2921 Mariner Island Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,081 (+2%)	1mo	$375,990	$181	62
2917 Mariner Island Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,922 (-5%)	1mo	$360,990	$188	56
14318 Lunan Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,280 (+12%)	1mo	$364,987	$160	53
13525 Bonita Island Way	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-6%)	1mo	$288,900	$152	52
13714 Ballast Green Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,738 (-14%)	1mo	$344,560	$198	51
3005 Mariner Island Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,229 (+10%)	1mo	$386,990	$174	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-71,491
• Equity at exit: $52,692

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-103,941
• Equity at exit: $30,555

Cash invested: $98,950 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77539

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 664
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,138 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,853
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$442 /mo · $5,301/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$118
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,241

Max offer price $341,697

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,348
• Closing costs: $10,602
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	1d	1	0.06mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	43d	1	1.01mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	3d	2	1.16mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	22d	1	1.45mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	11d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $118 · $1,416/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   price $299,990
3. 2026-04-10
   price $307,990
4. 2026-03-25
   price $322,490
5. 2026-03-19
   price $322,990
6. 2026-03-02
   price $323,490
7. 2026-02-24
   price $324,490
8. 2026-02-17
   price $324,990
9. 2026-02-05
   listed $327,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,796
• − Property taxes: −$5,301
• − Insurance: −$1,767
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,013
• − Management: −$3,013
• − HOA: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$10,281
• Taxable loss: −$6,924
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,662
• After-tax cash flow: $692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,375
• Household income: $89,111
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 869.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
• Current HPI: 258.0104
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $307,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $322,490 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $322,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $323,490 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $324,490 HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $324,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $327,990 HARMLS