23814 Single Oak St · Spring, TX 77373

$180,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,584 sqft · Townhouse public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2006 2,970 sqft lot Est $193k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this newly painted interior two story townhome with new carpet in Spring Crossing featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths & a 2 car garage. Spacious living room with tile flooring that continues throughout the 1st floor. Private fenced backyard with a patio. Easy access to 45, 99 & the Hardy Toll Road.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006
• Listed 20 days

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• INDOOR WASHER AND DRYER HOOKUP
• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• EASY ACCESS TO HARDY TOLL ROAD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; 2 stories; Built in 2006; Slab foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2006
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Vinyl siding; Lot approximately 2,970 square feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the second floor (approx. 14 x 13); Second bedroom on the second floor (approx. 11 x 11); Third bedroom on the second floor (approx. 10 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gloria Marshall El (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 953 students, 81% FRL); Rickey C Bailey Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,065 students, 85% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,300 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.91%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,248
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23731 Pebworth Pl	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,564 (-1%)	21mo	$179,900	$115	77
23621 Wildwood Green Way	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,440 (-9%)	13mo	$175,000	$122	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-17,058
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-15,683
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,240 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$460 /mo · $5,526/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,873

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2911 Cypress Island Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2240	$2,016	$0.90	7d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $180,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,526 · $460/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,526 · $460/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$5,526
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,151
• − Management: −$2,151
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable income: $837
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$201
• After-tax cash flow: $3,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+124.1% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Coming Soon $195,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-13 Rental Removed $2,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-03-11 Listed for Rent $2,000 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-03-10 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-01-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-01-06 Price Changed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-01-05 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-30 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2023-12-16 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-03 Price Changed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-06 Price Changed $2,150 HARMLS
• 2023-10-17 Listed for Rent $2,250 HARMLS
• 2023-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-10-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-08-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-08-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-08-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-08-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-08-08 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-21 Coming Soon $205,000 HARMLS
• 2020-12-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-12-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-12-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-11-27 Listed $151,990 HARMLS
• 2009-01-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-01-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2008-11-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-11-04 Listed $87,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,526 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.