444 Anita St #19 · Chula Vista, CA 91911

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 168 Days on market

Built 1968 2,200 sqft lot Est $232k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Lynwood South Mobile Estates, an attractive 55+ community that also welcomes residents aged 18 or older! This beautifully upgraded and spacious home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an additional room, and is located in the highly desirable and well-maintained Lynwood Senior Community. The generous 1,440 sq ft floor plan includes a separate dining area, a relaxing porch, a large walk-in closet, a shed, a laundry room, a carport, an easy-care yard, fruit trees, and much more. All kitchen appliances, as well as the washer and dryer, are included. The home is on HCD registration, which saves you money since there are no property taxes. Space rent is $1,485 per month, and the commun

Key facts

• Easy-care yard
• Laundry room
• Relaxing porch

Tags

• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• RELAXING PORCH
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• EASY-CARE YARD
• FRUIT TREES
• LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size estimated (0-1 unit/acre)
• Financial info: Land lease: $1,485 monthly
• HOA & community: Located in a senior community; Park: Lynwood South Mobile Estates; Community features include street lighting; Manager approval required; Pets allowed with size/number limits and breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: 3 covered carport spaces (attached carport); 1 uncovered parking space; Total 4 parking spaces; Guest parking
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (Model: Aurora); Mobile home remains on site; 24 ft wide by 60 ft long; Seller-supplied living area and year-built information
• Construction: Includes 1 shed
• Exterior features: Front porch; Open patio; Community pool (fenced)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (primary suite)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One-level home; Left and right side entries; Double pane windows; Walk-in closet; Bonus room/office/den; Primary suite with primary bathroom; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside; Washer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $926 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 2.7% in Chula Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#127 in CA, #4,345 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Sweetwater Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 517 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Castle Park Middle (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #252 of 498 statewide, top 51%, 724 students, 80% FRL); Castle Park Senior High (math 30% / reading 56%, grade F, #460 of 1,170 statewide, top 40%, 1,433 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 53% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,140/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 3751% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $225k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.64%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $231,840
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
445 Orange Ave Unit 29	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	7mo	$180,000	$134	75
444 Anita St #92	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	17mo	$184,900	$138	74
501 Anita #126	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	17mo	$171,688	$119	72
445 Orange Ave #56	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,365 (-5%)	13mo	$220,000	$161	71
521 Orange Ave #97	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	17mo	$310,000	$215	71
501 Anita #143	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	20mo	$87,500	$61	69
501 Anita #140	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	17mo	$160,000	$111	66
501 Anita St #65	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	18mo	$265,000	$184	66
521 Orange Ave #104	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+3%)	12mo	$430,000	$289	65
502 Anita St Spc 95	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,364 (-5%)	22mo	$180,000	$132	58
501 Anita St #79	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,254 (-13%)	3mo	$232,000	$185	57
521 Orange Ave #119	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	23mo	$330,000	$215	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $13,353
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $52,186
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91911

• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,140 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $926

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1311 Fourth Ave Chula Vista, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	824	$3,292	$3.99	1d	9	0.43mi
528 Palomar St Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.0	1597	$4,050	$2.54	1d	1	0.51mi
1240 Fourth Ave Chula Vista, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$4,588	$4.59	2d	1	0.60mi
1250 Fifth Ave Chula Vista, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1045	$2,500	$2.39	1d	4	0.60mi
1225 Broadway Chula Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$2,701	$3.23	1d	12	0.68mi
495 Queen Anne Dr Unit 1 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,800	$2.80	2d	1	0.78mi
172 Palomar St Chula Vista, CA	3.0	1.5	1152	$3,400	$2.95	10d	1	0.82mi
1105 Fourth Ave Chula Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	848	$2,775	$3.27	1d	1	0.93mi
128 Henry Ln Unit B Chula Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	1d	1	1.02mi
1067 Fourth Ave Chula Vista, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	702	$2,855	$4.06	1d	1	1.05mi
1051 Broadway Unit 13 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	875	$2,325	$2.66	1d	1	1.11mi
1035 Fourth Ave Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	910	$2,495	$2.74	17d	2	1.13mi
511 Wykes St Chula Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,650	$2.65	2d	1	1.13mi
868 Elise St Unit B Chula Vista, CA	3.0	1.0	909	$2,400	$2.64	1d	1	1.17mi
3875 Main St Chula Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	813	$2,950	$3.63	1d	9	1.22mi
1038 Oaklawn Ave Chula Vista, CA	3.0	1.5	1044	$3,995	$3.83	1d	1	1.26mi
986 Broadway Unit 982-313 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1020	$2,995	$2.94	14d	1	1.29mi
986 Broadway Unit 982-314 Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,295	$3.16	7d	1	1.29mi
986 Broadway Unit 982-202 UNFURNISHED Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,095	$2.96	1d	1	1.29mi
986 Broadway Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1044	$3,195	$3.06	3d	1	1.31mi
986 Broadway Chula Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	1020	$3,295	$3.23	5d	1	1.31mi
930 3rd Ave Chula Vista, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1099	$2,801	$2.55	1d	4	1.31mi
2709 Elm Ave Unit B San Diego, CA	3.0	3.0	1560	$3,449	$2.21	1d	1	1.34mi
217 Date St Unit B Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.5	1228	$3,500	$2.85	2d	1	1.35mi
71 E Palomar St Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.0	1388	$3,500	$2.52	14d	1	1.37mi
1169 Hilltop Dr Chula Vista, CA	3.0	2.0	1120	$4,000	$3.57	2d	1	1.38mi
813 Beyer Way San Diego, CA	3.0	2.5	1495	$3,500	$2.34	2d	1	1.38mi
2683 Caulfield Dr San Diego, CA	3.0	2.0	1445	$3,995	$2.76	2d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $225,000 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $225,000 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $225,000 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-04-23
    price $225,000
11. 2026-02-07
    status Active
12. 2026-01-26
    status Pending Sale
13. 2025-12-12
    listed $235,000 Active
14. 2025-12-09
    historical
15. 2025-12-02
    historical
16. 2025-10-23
    status Active
17. 2025-10-20
    historical
18. 2025-10-10
    listed $235,000 Active
19. 2025-10-10
    listed $235,000 Active
20. 2023-08-30
    soldstatus $149,900 Closed Sale
21. 2023-08-09
    status Pending Sale
22. 2023-08-08
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥86°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,015
• − Management: −$3,015
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $8,005
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,921
• After-tax cash flow: $9,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweetwater Union High
• NCES district ID: 0638640
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,051
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4158
• State rank: #187 of 517 in CA

Livability — Chula Vista

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #4345

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chula Vista, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 255,708
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 85,542
• Household income: $82,350
• Rent vs Own: 47.9% rent · 52.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 3751.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 75% Two or more races 34% White 12% Asian 7% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 71%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, South Korea, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 59% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -669.25%
• Current HPI: 413.8287
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.56%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+50.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-07 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-01-26 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $235,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-23 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $235,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $235,000 CRMLS
• 2023-08-30 Sold (MLS) $149,900 CRMLS
• 2023-08-09 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-08-08 Listed $149,900 CRMLS