2409 N 21st St · Milwaukee, WI 53206

$164,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 195 Days on market

Built 1890 7,405 sqft lot $124/sqft · 187% above area ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property offers five generous bedrooms, a large eat-in kitchen, and a separate dining room perfect for gatherings and everyday living. Enjoy a large backyard with plenty of room for entertaining, gardening, or play. With so much space and comfort, this home is ideal for a growing family!

Key facts

• Separate dining room
• Large backyard
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
• Recommended offer: $144k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.1% in Milwaukee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#55 in WI, #1,534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Milwaukee School District (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #337 of 342 in WI (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,017 units permitted in Milwaukee County in 2024 (803 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,734/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($29k/yr) (locally 2061% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Milwaukee County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $144,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.78%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,192
• List price: $164,000
• Delta: 186.76%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2350 N 18th St	0.22mi	5/1.0	1,329 (+1%)	4mo	$45,000	$34	85
2456 N 21st St	0.07mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,369 (+4%)	12mo	$140,000	$102	75
2453 N 15th St	0.38mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,329 (+1%)	0mo	$135,000	$102	72
2025 W Center St	0.35mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,362 (+3%)	9mo	$81,000	$59	64
2635 N 19th St	0.31mi	5/3.0	1,380 (+4%)	10mo	$103,000	$75	61
2457 N 25th St	0.32mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,230 (-7%)	13mo	$126,500	$103	58
2634 N 24th Pl	0.37mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,256 (-5%)	15mo	$98,000	$78	57
2749 N 16th St	0.51mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,300 (-2%)	15mo	$25,000	$19	54
2548 N 18th St	0.28mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,510 (+14%)	2mo	$130,000	$86	54
2453 N 25th St	0.32mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,194 (-10%)	14mo	$88,000	$74	52
3003 N 20th St	0.75mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,437 (+9%)	2mo	$93,000	$65	44
2607 N 24th St	0.31mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,130 (-14%)	18mo	$48,000	$42	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $122,269
• Equity at exit: $147,744

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.92×
• Total profit: $363,895
• Equity at exit: $318,616

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53206

• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,734 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $805/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,260

Max offer price $164,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $467	-5% $421	+0% $374	+5% $328	+10% $282
Rent	-10% $237	-5% $306	+0% $374	+5% $443	+10% $511
Rate	-1.0pp $457	-0.5pp $416	base $374	+0.5pp $332	+1.0pp $289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2308 W Clarke St Milwaukee, WI	4.0	2.0	1545	$1,750	$1.13	24d	1	0.26mi
2478-2480 W Juneau Ave Unit 2478 Milwaukee, WI	4.0	1.0	1375	$1,495	$1.09	24d	1	1.20mi
2704 W Concordia Ave Unit Na Milwaukee, WI	5.0	2.0	1856	$2,500	$1.35	24d	1	1.21mi
3388 N 27th St Unit 3388 Front House Milwaukee, WI	4.0	1.0	1212	$1,550	$1.28	5d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,000 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,000 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,000 Active 191 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,000 Active 190 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,000 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,000 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,000 Active 186 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,000 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,000 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,000 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $164,000 Active 178 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,000 Active 177 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,000 Active 176 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,000 Active 175 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,000 Active 174 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    price $164,000 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    This property offers five generous bedrooms, a large eat-in kitchen, and a separate dining room perfect for gatherings and everyday living. Enjoy a large backyard with plenty of room for entertaining, gardening, or play. With so much space and comfort, this home is ideal for a growing family!

17. 2026-02-04
    price $169,000 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    This property offers five generous bedrooms, a large eat-in kitchen, and a separate dining room perfect for gatherings and everyday living. Enjoy a large backyard with plenty of room for entertaining, gardening, or play. With so much space and comfort, this home is ideal for a growing family!

18. 2025-12-08
    listed $180,000 Active 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    This property offers five generous bedrooms, a large eat-in kitchen, and a separate dining room perfect for gatherings and everyday living. Enjoy a large backyard with plenty of room for entertaining, gardening, or play. With so much space and comfort, this home is ideal for a growing family!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $805 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,919 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,115/yr (+$93/mo · 138.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$805
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,665
• − Management: −$1,665
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable income: $1,896
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$455
• After-tax cash flow: $4,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Milwaukee School District
• NCES district ID: 5509600
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,339
• Composite: 11.61/100
• National rank: #9696
• State rank: #337 of 342 in WI

Livability — Milwaukee

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #1534

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milwaukee, WI
• County: Milwaukee County · 926,379 people
• City population: 573,768
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• Population (ZIP): 19,887
• Household income: $29,336
• Rent vs Own: 67.8% rent · 32.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2061.0

Population outlook (Milwaukee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 995,758 people
• By 2030: 1,009,124 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 1,028,128 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 1,040,066 · +4.4%
• By 2075: 1,057,849 · +6.2%
• By 2100: 1,039,774 · +4.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% Two or more races 3% White 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Norwegian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Milwaukee

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.5) · D 68.3% · R 29.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: 35.9pp · 2024: 38.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.5 2020: D+39.9 2016: D+37.5 2012: D+34.6 2008: D+35.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 133.03%
• Current HPI: 397.7151
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.28%
• Metro: Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $164,000 METROMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $169,000 METROMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $180,000 METROMLS

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $805 · -54.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.