3127 Brisbane St · Houston, TX 77051

$170,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,838 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1961 6,050 sqft lot $92/sqft · 17% below area Est $205k · 17% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-owner home is conveniently situated within minutes of the Texas Medical Center, NRG Stadium, the Museum District, downtown Houston, and major universities. This home boasts two generous living areas, three bedrooms, and one and a half bathrooms.

Key facts

• 6,050 sq ft lot
• Built 1961
• Listed 93 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $637 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Reynolds El (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #4,301 of 4,322 statewide, top 100%, 334 students, 98% FRL); Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,400/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.05%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,135
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -17.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11405 Galway Grove Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,836 (-0%)	0mo	$299,900	$163	72
3106 Altus Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	2,078 (+13%)	1mo	$330,000	$159	70
11404 Lucky Falls Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,775 (-3%)	2mo	$329,760	$186	64
11410 Waterford Spring Trl	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,731 (-6%)	1mo	$304,900	$176	63
3327 Young Clover Way	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,731 (-6%)	1mo	$299,900	$173	59
11408 Lucky Falls Dr	0.54mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,775 (-3%)	1mo	$367,999	$207	59
10307 Sylvan Woods Trl	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,719 (-6%)	2mo	$319,990	$186	46
2626 Afton Heights Way	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,719 (-6%)	3mo	$319,990	$186	43
3354 Vine Terrace Trce	0.58mi	3/3.0	2,080 (+13%)	3mo	$352,907	$170	43
10309 Sylvan Woods Trl	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,017 (+10%)	3mo	$329,990	$164	40
10313 Lancaster Forest Ln	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,017 (+10%)	2mo	$329,990	$164	39
2640 Afton Heights Way	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,586 (-14%)	3mo	$313,990	$198	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $137,570
• Equity at exit: $153,149

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.04×
• Total profit: $382,893
• Equity at exit: $330,273

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$297 /mo · $3,560/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,594

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $733	-5% $685	+0% $637	+5% $589	+10% $540
Rent	-10% $447	-5% $542	+0% $637	+5% $731	+10% $826
Rate	-1.0pp $722	-0.5pp $680	base $637	+0.5pp $593	+1.0pp $548

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	6d	1	0.53mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	23d	1	0.53mi
12320 Chesney Downs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$3,500	$1.75	4d	1	0.58mi
3002 Crown Gate Dr Unit 1568481P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2195	$3,345	$1.52	1d	1	0.61mi
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	19d	1	0.63mi
10415 Lancaster Ln Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1937	$2,525	$1.30	22d	1	0.72mi
3013 Maughan Heights Trl Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2386	$5,000	$2.10	0d	1	0.89mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	7d	1	0.94mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	45d	1	1.00mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	45d	1	1.11mi
3020 Gunnersbury Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,499	$0.90	16d	1	1.15mi
2706 Skyview Downs Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2464	$2,200	$0.89	3d	1	1.20mi
2920 Stamford Hill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,200	$1.30	45d	1	1.21mi
3710 Rockingham St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1890	$1,700	$0.90	45d	1	1.23mi
4510 Bungalow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,995	$0.95	45d	1	1.28mi
12207 Duane Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,646	$1.06	1d	1	1.40mi
11915 Sanspereil Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,695	$1.30	4d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $170,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-04-19
    price $180,000 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    This single-owner home is conveniently situated within minutes of the Texas Medical Center, NRG Stadium, the Museum District, downtown Houston, and major universities. This home boasts two generous living areas, three bedrooms, and one and a half bathrooms.

14. 2026-03-20
    listed $190,000 Active 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    This single-owner home is conveniently situated within minutes of the Texas Medical Center, NRG Stadium, the Museum District, downtown Houston, and major universities. This home boasts two generous living areas, three bedrooms, and one and a half bathrooms.

15. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,560 · $297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,560 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$3,560
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $5,309
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,274
• After-tax cash flow: $6,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,560 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.