15311 Woodforest Blvd · Channelview, TX 77530

$175,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,646 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1964 6,094 sqft lot Est $237k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 15311 Woodforest Blvd, The home features a deck, adding a touch of elegance to the overall aesthetic and a storage shed for all your tools. The fenced-in backyard provides privacy and security. The fresh interior paint gives the home a clean and modern feel, creating a welcoming atmosphere for all who enter. The new flooring throughout the home adds a touch of sophistication and style, making it a truly remarkable property. This home is a must-see for anyone seeking a blend of functionality and style. Come and experience the charm for yourself. Included 100-Day Home Warranty with buyer activation.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Deck
• Fence

Tags

• DECK
• FENCE
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.8% in Channelview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#598 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Channelview ISD (suburban): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #640 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Channelview H S (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 2,893 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 70% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.9%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13945% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,024
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
826 Ivyhollow Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,593 (-3%)	3mo	$175,000	$110	76
734 Dell Dale St	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,471 (-11%)	0mo	$150,000	$102	75
15418 Lost Lariat Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,545 (-6%)	3mo	$254,900	$165	74
15422 Sicomoro Viejo St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,684 (+2%)	2mo	$265,000	$157	70
15145 Sheffield Ter	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,606 (-2%)	2mo	$229,950	$143	66
1022 Rancho Grande Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,805 (+10%)	2mo	$260,000	$144	63
15462 Bosque Viejo Trl	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,549 (-6%)	3mo	$250,000	$161	59
1118 Chestnut Bough St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,499 (-9%)	1mo	$225,000	$150	59
1042 Rancho Grande Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,869 (+14%)	1mo	$260,000	$139	56
15443 Cipres Verde St	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,881 (+14%)	2mo	$259,900	$138	47
1054 Somercotes Ln	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,410 (-14%)	3mo	$229,950	$163	38
1322 Great Dover Cir	0.74mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,464 (-11%)	3mo	$200,000	$137	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,417
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $51,861
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77530

• Rents YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,521/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,731

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15255 Ferness Ln Channelview, TX	4.0	2.0	1326	$1,668	$1.26	2d	10	0.46mi
947 Leadenhall Cir Channelview, TX	3.0	2.5	1620	$1,856	$1.15	7d	1	0.52mi
1379 Dell Dale St Channelview, TX	4.0	2.0	1444	$1,893	$1.31	5d	1	0.85mi
1335 Willersley Ln Channelview, TX	3.0	2.0	1669	$1,775	$1.06	2d	1	0.91mi
810 Townley St Channelview, TX	3.0	3.5	1713	$1,925	$1.12	43d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   status Active
3. 2026-03-16
   historical
4. 2026-02-17
   historical $1,246
5. 2026-02-15
   listed $1,246
6. 2026-02-12
   price $175,000
7. 2026-01-22
   listed $180,000 Active
8. 2025-12-17
   soldstatus
9. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,521 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,521 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$4,521
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$909
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$218
• After-tax cash flow: $2,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Channelview ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813590
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $52,320
• Composite: 25.18/100
• National rank: #7513
• State rank: #640 of 826 in TX

Livability — Channelview

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #598
• US rank: #11392

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Channelview, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 31,527
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,527
• Household income: $62,195
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 966.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% Two or more races 31% White 16% Black 9% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 60% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.05%
• Current HPI: 292.1862
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.85%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Rental Removed $1,246 RENTSPREE
• 2026-02-15 Listed for Rent $1,246 RENTSPREE
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,521 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.