Sierra Plan · Astatula, FL 34705

$464,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,427 sqft · SingleFamily · 306 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The Sierra - Casual Elegance with Room to Grow Stylish, spacious, and designed for real life, The Sierra offers the perfect blend of comfort and sophistication. With over 2,400 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space, this 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home creates a warm, welcoming atmosphere-ideal for both family living and entertaining. Step inside to find a flex space and a formal dining room right off the entryway-perfect for a home office, playroom, or extra gathering space. The heart of the home is the open-concept great room and elegant kitchen, where you'll have plenty of room to cook, relax, and connect with loved ones. The private master suite is tucked away on one side of the h

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Listed 306 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $464,990

Exterior

• Home design: Sierra plan (new construction plan); Single-family home
• Construction: Living area approximately 2427; Built as part of a 2025 or later plan
• Exterior features: Located at 12986 Stillwater Cove Dr, Astatula, FL 34705

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open plan living area

🏗️ New construction. The $464,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $451,422.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $465k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $465k).
• Recommended offer: $409k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#319 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $409,191 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.63%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $451,422
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12886 Del Lago Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,100 (-14%)	22mo	$389,900	$186	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $144,906
• Equity at exit: $194,754

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $388,204
• Equity at exit: $293,896

Cash invested: $126,398 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34705

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$564 /mo · $6,771/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,239
• Net cashflow: $1,541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,949

Max offer price $451,422

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,856
• Closing costs: $13,543
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12830 Florida Ave Astatula, FL	4.0	3.0	3211	$5,900	$1.84	4d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $464,990 Active 306 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $464,990 Active 305 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $464,990 Active 304 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $464,990 Active 303 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $464,990 Active 301 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $464,990 Active 297 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $464,990 Active 296 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $464,990 Active 295 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $464,990 Active 292 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $464,990 Active 291 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $464,990 Active 290 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $464,990 Active 289 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $464,990 Active 288 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,287
• − Property taxes: −$6,771
• − Insurance: −$2,257
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,664
• − Management: −$5,664
• − Depreciation: −$13,132
• Taxable income: $12,025
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,886
• After-tax cash flow: $15,610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Astatula

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #5538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Astatula, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,212

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.67%
• Current HPI: 368.3718
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B