909 Bradley St · Lubbock, TX 79403

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,182 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1973 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom brick home with a 2-car garage, located in a quiet, established neighborhood. This home features warm, inviting tones throughout, fresh interior paint, newer vinyl plank flooring, and beautifully updated kitchen and bathrooms. The spacious backyard offers plenty of room to relax or entertain. A great fit for first-time buyers or investors seeking a clean, turnkey rental property.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Updated bathrooms
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• QUIET ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cavazos Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 479 students, 97% FRL); Lubbock H S (math 45% / reading 52%, grade D, #560 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 1,839 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,642 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.82%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-12,594
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,401
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79403

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,346 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $973/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,106

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $269	-5% $230	+0% $190	+5% $150	+10% $111
Rent	-10% $84	-5% $137	+0% $190	+5% $243	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $261	-0.5pp $226	base $190	+0.5pp $154	+1.0pp $117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2122 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,500	$1.26	15d	1	0.26mi
2123 N Jayton Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,175	$0.87	45d	1	0.26mi
2119 North Avenue K Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,450	$1.00	45d	1	0.27mi
2118 N Jayton Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,325	$1.12	23d	1	0.28mi
2118 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,325	$0.98	45d	1	0.28mi
2114 North Avenue K Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,350	$1.14	45d	1	0.29mi
2117 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,325	$1.12	45d	1	0.29mi
2112 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,325	$1.12	23d	1	0.32mi
2125 N Texas Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,299	$0.96	45d	1	0.32mi
1505 Bradley St Unit D Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$650	$0.81	45d	1	0.32mi
2109 North Avenue K Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,299	$0.96	23d	1	0.32mi
2109 North Avenue K Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,299	$0.96	45d	1	0.32mi
2425 N Avenue N Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,450	$1.10	15d	1	0.32mi
2108 N Avenue L Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,299	$0.96	45d	1	0.34mi
2102 N Jayton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	45d	1	0.36mi
2509 N Avenue O Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,349	$1.02	45d	1	0.37mi
2101 N Texas Ave Unit 2-B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,295	$1.09	15d	1	0.38mi
2402 N Avenue O Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,299	$0.98	45d	1	0.39mi
2608 N Avenue P Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,399	$1.12	15d	1	0.40mi
2502 N Avenue P Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,365	$1.03	15d	1	0.41mi
2420 North Avenue P Unit P Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,399	$1.06	45d	1	0.42mi
2418 North Avenue P Unit P Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,450	$1.10	45d	1	0.42mi
503 E Rice St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1103	$1,150	$1.04	23d	1	1.01mi
515 E Stanford St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	910	$595	$0.65	23d	1	1.03mi
509 E Queens St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,050	$0.96	45d	1	1.07mi
506 E Municipal Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1065	$900	$0.85	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   status Active
3. 2026-02-26
   historical $1,200
4. 2026-02-20
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-06
   listed $140,000 Active
6. 2026-02-06
   listed $1,200
7. 2024-12-25
   historical $1,200
8. 2024-12-12
   listed $1,200
9. 2024-09-16
   soldstatus
10. 1993-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $973 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,589/yr (+$132/mo · 163.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$973
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,293
• − Management: −$1,293
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$16
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4
• After-tax cash flow: $2,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,089
• Household income: $47,907
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 26% Black 23% Two or more races 16% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.69%
• Current HPI: 178.9297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Rental Removed $1,200 APPFOLIO
• 2026-02-20 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $140,000 LARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed for Rent $1,200 APPFOLIO
• 2024-12-25 Rental Removed $1,200 BUILDIUM
• 2024-12-12 Listed for Rent $1,200 BUILDIUM
• 2024-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $973 · -61.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.