212 Winding Way St · Lake Jackson, TX 77566

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 972 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1945 0.27 ac lot $103/sqft · 37% below area Est $158k · 37% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

READY FOR MOVE IN, NEW CARPET, TILE, COVERED PATIO, QUITE NEIGHBORHOOD, NEAR DOWNTOWN, FENCED BACK YARD, ROOF IS 4 YEARS OLD, SOME CLEANING ON GOING

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1945

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living)
• Construction: Built in 1945; Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Fence enclosing the backyard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 12); Bonus room on the first floor (approx. 8 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Pantry; Tub with shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.8% in Lake Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in TX, #2,709 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Brazosport ISD (suburban): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #305 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elisabet Ney Pre-Kindergarten Campus (213 students, 75% FRL); Rasco Middle (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 731 students, 58% FRL); Brazoswood H S (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 2,398 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 231 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.72%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,724
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -20.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 Center Way St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	966 (-1%)	5mo	$154,000	$159	78
209 Center Way St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,026 (+6%)	11mo	$189,900	$185	71
55 Blue Bonnet Ct	0.30mi	2/1.0	916 (-6%)	9mo	$109,900	$120	69
110 Cherry St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	990 (+2%)	9mo	$164,900	$167	68
103 Laurel Street St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	988 (+2%)	12mo	$165,500	$168	63
110 S Magnolia St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,005 (+3%)	4mo	$199,900	$199	59
508 Center Way St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	940 (-3%)	7mo	$185,000	$197	58
104 Mimosa St	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,043 (+7%)	2mo	$175,000	$168	55
103 Palm Ln	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,032 (+6%)	2mo	$149,900	$145	50
318 Acacia St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	920 (-5%)	9mo	$189,900	$206	49
105 Wisteria St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,113 (+14%)	9mo	$205,000	$184	45
225 Laurel St	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,030 (+6%)	10mo	$160,000	$155	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-12,495
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-14,664
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77566

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,164 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,928/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,025

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $138	+0% $110	+5% $82	+10% $54
Rent	-10% $18	-5% $64	+0% $110	+5% $156	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $136	base $110	+0.5pp $84	+1.0pp $58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
130 Oyster Creek Dr Unit OYS3019 Lake Jackson, TX	2.0	1.0	817	$875	$1.07	3d	1	0.61mi
148 Oyster Creek Dr Lake Jackson, TX	2.0	1.0	865	$975	$1.13	45d	1	0.84mi
460 TX-332 Lake Jackson, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,026	$1.23	45d	17	0.92mi
460 TX-332 Lake Jackson, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	836	$972	$1.16	0d	10	0.92mi
520 That Way Lake Jackson, TX	1.0	1.0	848	$1,002	$1.18	45d	1	1.01mi
111 Any Way St Lake Jackson, TX	1.0	1.0	648	$803	$1.24	45d	1	1.02mi
500 Willow Dr Unit WILC1 Lake Jackson, TX	2.0	2.0	937	$995	$1.06	11d	1	1.06mi
500 Willow Dr Unit WILA8 Lake Jackson, TX	2.0	2.0	937	$935	$1.00	45d	1	1.06mi
116 Lake Rd Lake Jackson, TX	1.0	1.0	552	$837	$1.52	45d	1	1.13mi
106 Cactus St Lake Jackson, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,496	$1.36	45d	1	1.25mi
100 Cactus St Lake Jackson, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,895	$1.99	0d	22	1.26mi
133 Plantation Dr W Lake Jackson, TX	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,149	$1.07	45d	1	1.43mi
117 Loganberry St Lake Jackson, TX	1.0	1.0	655	$919	$1.40	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $99,900 Pending 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $99,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 357-char remark
7. 2026-03-31
   price $124,900 357-char remark
8. 2026-01-06
   price $134,900 357-char remark
9. 2025-10-09
   listed $139,900 Active 357-char remark
10. 2016-07-11
    soldstatus
11. 2015-05-01
    soldstatus
12. 2014-10-22
    soldstatus
13. 2014-03-11
    soldstatus
14. 2014-03-10
    soldstatus 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    READY FOR MOVE IN, NEW CARPET, TILE, COVERED PATIO, QUITE NEIGHBORHOOD, NEAR DOWNTOWN, FENCED BACK YARD, ROOF IS 4 YEARS OLD, SOME CLEANING ON GOING

15. 2013-10-28
    listed $78,000 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    READY FOR MOVE IN, NEW CARPET, TILE, COVERED PATIO, QUITE NEIGHBORHOOD, NEAR DOWNTOWN, FENCED BACK YARD, ROOF IS 4 YEARS OLD, SOME CLEANING ON GOING

16. 2007-05-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$2,928
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$196
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$47
• After-tax cash flow: $1,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brazosport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811190
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,024
• Composite: 36.84/100
• National rank: #4557
• State rank: #305 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Jackson

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2709

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Jackson, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 30,246
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,246
• Household income: $92,586
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1126.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 16% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.81%
• Current HPI: 251.8234
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.11%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+28.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $124,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $134,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2016-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-10-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-03-10 Sold (MLS) — BCBR
• 2013-10-28 Listed $78,000 BCBR
• 2007-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,928 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.