2901 42nd Ln N · Birmingham, AL 35207

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,340 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1960 9,583 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3 bed, 1 bath home with 1,056 sq ft, built in 1985, is a perfect opportunity for investors looking for a turnkey rental in North Birmingham. The property was just vacated and was previously rented for $1,265/month, tenant recently moved out and it is ready for a new tenant! This house offers a strong return and rental history. Located in a growing area with solid rental demand, this home features a functional layout, spacious living area, and minimal maintenance makes ideal for solid cashflow and portfolio expansion.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 16 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hudson Keight School (math 0% / reading 7%, grade F, #627 of 627 statewide, top 100%, 633 students, 94% FRL).
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 7995% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.89%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $24,120
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4025 28th Way	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,358 (+1%)	21mo	$24,900	$18	64
4200 29th St N	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,159 (-14%)	12mo	$30,000	$26	62
4941 Cheek Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,284 (-4%)	13mo	$14,500	$11	55
2808 38th Ave N	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-12%)	11mo	$20,000	$17	39
4005 N 28th Pl	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,227 (-8%)	24mo	$72,000	$59	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $66,380
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.55×
• Total profit: $179,714
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35207

• Home prices YoY: 18.7%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,131 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,164/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $732

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3016 33rd Ct N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,100	$1.09	44d	1	0.74mi
3373 33rd Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	3d	1	0.92mi
3376 34th St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	928	$1,200	$1.29	12d	1	0.95mi
3376 34th St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	928	$1,200	$1.29	24d	1	0.95mi
3376 34th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	928	$1,200	$1.29	3d	1	1.10mi
3708 42nd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	876	$950	$1.08	44d	1	1.20mi
2129 30th Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1042	$1,000	$0.96	24d	1	1.20mi
2015 36th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1468	$1,190	$0.81	24d	1	1.30mi
2807 34th St N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1556	$1,100	$0.71	44d	1	1.31mi
2129 30th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1042	$1,000	$0.96	44d	1	1.40mi
1303 Main St Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1432	$1,300	$0.91	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-11-22
   historical $1,562
2. 2025-11-01
   price $1,562
3. 2025-10-28
   listed $1,050
4. 2025-08-28
   status Pending
5. 2025-08-18
   status Active
6. 2025-08-06
   status Pending
7. 2025-07-31
   listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,164 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,164 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,164
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,086
• − Management: −$1,086
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,576
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$618
• After-tax cash flow: $3,164/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• City population: 210,422
• Population (ZIP): 6,824

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 35.95%
• Current HPI: 228.5664
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-98.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-22 Rental Removed $1,562 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $1,562 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-10-28 Listed for Rent $1,050 TENANTTURNER2
• 2025-08-28 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-08-18 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-08-06 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $85,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,164 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.