4061 SW 133rd Ln · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,253 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2025 10,019 sqft lot $191/sqft · 7% below area Est $258k · 7% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY! Just built last year and only lived in for a few months. Solar security lights and cameras installed. Includes stainless steel appliances, ceiling fans with remotes, pantry, inside laundry room and more. Excellent condition and ready for immediate occupancy. Marion Oaks is a deed restricted community with NO HOA FEES.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Security cameras
• Ceiling fans

Tags

• SOLAR SECURITY LIGHTS
• SECURITY CAMERAS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CEILING FANS
• PANTRY
• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $144 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,849 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.57%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,780
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -7.29%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3694 SW 131st Place Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,282 (+2%)	4mo	$265,000	$207	78
4121 SW 130th Loop	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+14%)	4mo	$262,759	$184	60
4784 SW 131st Pl	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,337 (+7%)	2mo	$263,000	$197	55
4592 SW 132nd St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,371 (+9%)	21mo	$282,990	$206	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-35,548
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-42,237
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $988/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,817

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $279	-5% $211	+0% $144	+5% $76	+10% $8
Rent	-10% $-14	-5% $65	+0% $144	+5% $222	+10% $301
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $204	base $144	+0.5pp $82	+1.0pp $19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4052 SW 132nd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	21d	1	0.03mi
3995 SW 134th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,100	$1.20	21d	1	0.11mi
13401 SW 43rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,900	$1.25	14d	1	0.26mi
3892 SW 130th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	14d	1	0.27mi
13690 SW 43rd Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1802	$2,200	$1.22	14d	1	0.31mi
3971 SW 130th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1485	$2,000	$1.35	14d	1	0.31mi
4428 SW 132nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	21d	1	0.33mi
13731 SW 40th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	14d	1	0.42mi
13805 SW 43rd Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,800	$1.20	21d	1	0.52mi
4004 SW 138th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,695	$1.26	21d	1	0.59mi
13341 SW 29th Cir Unit NA Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,685	$1.06	21d	1	0.66mi
13341 SW 29th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,725	$1.08	14d	1	0.66mi
4691 SW 129th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1643	$1,850	$1.13	21d	1	0.66mi
251 Marion Oaks Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,795	$1.31	21d	1	0.81mi
13410 SW 31st Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,899	$1.06	21d	1	0.82mi
13416 SW 31st Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,199	$1.23	14d	1	0.84mi
12732 SW 33rd Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,200	$1.30	14d	1	0.89mi
14193 SW 44th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,599	$1.10	14d	1	0.95mi
4309 SW 143rd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,799	$1.45	14d	1	1.07mi
14007 SW 30th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,675	$0.98	21d	1	1.16mi
14430 SW 34th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,350	$1.32	14d	1	1.20mi
14525 SW 42nd Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,850	$1.38	14d	1	1.28mi
14614 SW 46th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $239,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    price $239,000 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! Just built last year and only lived in for a few months. Solar security lights and cameras installed. Includes stainless steel appliances, ceiling fans with remotes, pantry, inside laundry room and more. Excellent condition and ready for immediate occupancy. Marion Oaks is a deed restricted community with NO HOA FEES.

17. 2026-03-30
    listed $244,900 Active 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    MOVE IN READY! Just built last year and only lived in for a few months. Solar security lights and cameras installed. Includes stainless steel appliances, ceiling fans with remotes, pantry, inside laundry room and more. Excellent condition and ready for immediate occupancy. Marion Oaks is a deed restricted community with NO HOA FEES.

18. 2026-02-18
    price $249,900
19. 2026-01-09
    listed $264,400 Active
20. 2025-11-22
    price $248,000
21. 2025-10-26
    price $259,000
22. 2025-09-30
    listed $273,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $988 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,984 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$995/yr (+$83/mo · 100.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$988
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$2,379
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$571
• After-tax cash flow: $2,293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $249,900 DGLMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $264,400 DGLMLS
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $248,000 DGLMLS
• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $259,000 DGLMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $273,900 DGLMLS

Property tax history

+17.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $988 · +136.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.