472 J Ave · Felsenthal, AR 71747

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1999 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

If you've been dreaming of an affordable getaway, fishing camp, retirement spot, or peaceful full-time home near the water. .. this one is worth a look! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1344sq feet, on 6 lots - Block 38, level yard, and a new 3-ton HVAC unit installed in 2021. Plenty of room for boats, trailers, campers, outdoor entertaining & more. This property has been loved by the same owners since 2003 and has been the setting for years of family reunions, camping memories, laughter, and special moments. Now, it's ready for a new chapter.

Key facts

• Level yard
• Outdoor entertaining
• Room for boats

Tags

• NEW HVAC UNIT
• LEVEL YARD
• ROOM FOR BOATS
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Municipal electric service (including Entergy)
• Home design: Single-family residence (property type not explicitly stated); Approximate living area 1,344
• Construction: Metal roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl siding; Paved road access; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in stove; Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator stays
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Carpet and laminate flooring; Laundry room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#366 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Strong-Huttig School District (rural): math 15% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #241 of 245 in AR (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Union County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $109,253 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.60%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $25,077
• Equity at exit: $51,709

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $73,421
• Equity at exit: $79,690

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71747

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $421/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $868

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $242	-5% $210	+0% $177	+5% $144	+10% $112
Rent	-10% $91	-5% $134	+0% $177	+5% $220	+10% $263
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $206	base $177	+0.5pp $147	+1.0pp $117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $115,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Price Change 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Price Change 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Price Change 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricestatusdays on market $115,000 Price Change 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $125,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $421 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $736 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$315/yr (+$26/mo · 74.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$421
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,049
• − Management: −$1,049
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $229
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$55
• After-tax cash flow: $2,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Strong-Huttig School District
• NCES district ID: 0512930
• Math proficiency: 15% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,099
• Composite: 15.7/100
• National rank: #14329
• State rank: #241 of 245 in AR

Livability — Felsenthal

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #22248

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Felsenthal, AR
• Population (ZIP): 657

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,422 people
• By 2030: 35,808 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 32,605 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 29,688 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 23,691 · -36.7%
• By 2100: 17,950 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 44%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $125,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+19.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $421 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.