15004 SW 23rd Pl · Rainbow Park, FL 34481

$194,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Land · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ENERGY EFFICIENT NEW CONSTRUCTION COMPLETED. only waiting for final inspections to come in. Granite Countertops, Tile Flooring, Vaulted Ceilings. Kitchen & Open Area overlooks Oversized back yard. Why Buy used when you can Own BRAND NEW at an affordable price !!

Key facts

• Tile flooring
• Granite countertops
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE FLOORING
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• OVERSIZED BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R1; Lot approximately 0.26 acres (75 x 135); Living area reported as 1,150 sq ft; Builder and builder model listed; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; North-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; New construction (projected completion May 31, 2026); Slab foundation; Completed condition
• Exterior features: Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Split bedroom layout; Vaulted ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $194k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (5.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.4% in Rainbow Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $194k implies a 676% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,018 (5.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.55%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-12,636
• Equity at exit: $28,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $12,956
• Equity at exit: $16,774

Cash invested: $54,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34481

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,830 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,017
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $613/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,455

Max offer price $194,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,500
• Closing costs: $5,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14665 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,900	$1.55	14d	1	0.35mi
15388 SW 26th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,800	$1.48	13d	1	0.45mi
14445 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	21d	1	0.55mi
14070 SW 17th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,500	$1.08	21d	1	0.98mi
15854 SW 38th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,750	$1.38	14d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   status Active
3. 2026-02-15
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-28
   listed $194,000 Active
5. 2006-03-09
   soldstatus $25,000
6. 2005-01-11
   soldstatus $17,800
7. 2004-12-29
   soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $613 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,610 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$998/yr (+$83/mo · 162.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,867
• − Property taxes: −$613
• − Insurance: −$970
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,757
• − Management: −$1,757
• − Depreciation: −$5,644
• Taxable income: $355
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$85
• After-tax cash flow: $3,474/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rainbow Park, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,782
• Household income: $57,324
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.48%
• Current HPI: 199.986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1112.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Listed $194,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2005-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $17,800 Public Records
• 2004-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $613 · +101.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.