400 E Main St · Long Creek, OR 97856

$72,500

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,955 sqft · SingleFamily · 407 Days on market

Built 1970 0.43 ac lot ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come take a look at this rustic cabin located in Long Creek, OR. Make this a fun get away destination for hunting, snowmobiling and fishing or take a drive to the Kimberly orchards or the John Day fossil beds. 5 bed, 2 bath with a wide open view of Backcountry Oregon.

Key facts

• Wide open view
• Backcountry oregon
• Rustic cabin

Tags

• RUSTIC CABIN
• WIDE OPEN VIEW
• BACKCOUNTRY OREGON

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $707 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#307 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Long Creek SD 17 (rural): math 75% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #11 of 58 in OR (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($501 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Grant County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 407 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 407 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.82%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $53,792
• Equity at exit: $32,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.32×
• Total profit: $128,372
• Equity at exit: $50,239

Cash invested: $20,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97856

• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,493 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$380
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $740/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $707

Break-even live

Break-even rent $598

Max offer price $72,500

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,125
• Closing costs: $2,175
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,500 Active 407 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,500 Active 406 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,500 Active 405 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,500 Active 404 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,500 Active 402 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $72,500 Active 401 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 398 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 397 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 396 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,000 Active 394 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,000 Active 392 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 391 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 390 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 389 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $79,000 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Come take a look at this rustic cabin located in Long Creek, OR. Make this a fun get away destination for hunting, snowmobiling and fishing or take a drive to the Kimberly orchards or the John Day fossil beds. 5 bed, 2 bath with a wide open view of Backcountry Oregon.

16. 2026-04-13
    price $84,000 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Come take a look at this rustic cabin located in Long Creek, OR. Make this a fun get away destination for hunting, snowmobiling and fishing or take a drive to the Kimberly orchards or the John Day fossil beds. 5 bed, 2 bath with a wide open view of Backcountry Oregon.

17. 2026-03-11
    price $91,500 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Come take a look at this rustic cabin located in Long Creek, OR. Make this a fun get away destination for hunting, snowmobiling and fishing or take a drive to the Kimberly orchards or the John Day fossil beds. 5 bed, 2 bath with a wide open view of Backcountry Oregon.

18. 2026-02-06
    price $97,500 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Come take a look at this rustic cabin located in Long Creek, OR. Make this a fun get away destination for hunting, snowmobiling and fishing or take a drive to the Kimberly orchards or the John Day fossil beds. 5 bed, 2 bath with a wide open view of Backcountry Oregon.

19. 2026-01-07
    price $100,000 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Come take a look at this rustic cabin located in Long Creek, OR. Make this a fun get away destination for hunting, snowmobiling and fishing or take a drive to the Kimberly orchards or the John Day fossil beds. 5 bed, 2 bath with a wide open view of Backcountry Oregon.

20. 2025-11-30
    price $105,400 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Come take a look at this rustic cabin located in Long Creek, OR. Make this a fun get away destination for hunting, snowmobiling and fishing or take a drive to the Kimberly orchards or the John Day fossil beds. 5 bed, 2 bath with a wide open view of Backcountry Oregon.

21. 2025-10-28
    price $109,900 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Come take a look at this rustic cabin located in Long Creek, OR. Make this a fun get away destination for hunting, snowmobiling and fishing or take a drive to the Kimberly orchards or the John Day fossil beds. 5 bed, 2 bath with a wide open view of Backcountry Oregon.

22. 2025-09-27
    price $120,000 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Come take a look at this rustic cabin located in Long Creek, OR. Make this a fun get away destination for hunting, snowmobiling and fishing or take a drive to the Kimberly orchards or the John Day fossil beds. 5 bed, 2 bath with a wide open view of Backcountry Oregon.

23. 2025-08-07
    price $152,760 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Come take a look at this rustic cabin located in Long Creek, OR. Make this a fun get away destination for hunting, snowmobiling and fishing or take a drive to the Kimberly orchards or the John Day fossil beds. 5 bed, 2 bath with a wide open view of Backcountry Oregon.

24. 2025-05-07
    listed $160,800 Active 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    Come take a look at this rustic cabin located in Long Creek, OR. Make this a fun get away destination for hunting, snowmobiling and fishing or take a drive to the Kimberly orchards or the John Day fossil beds. 5 bed, 2 bath with a wide open view of Backcountry Oregon.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $740 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $740 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,061
• − Property taxes: −$740
• − Insurance: −$362
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,433
• − Management: −$1,433
• − Depreciation: −$2,109
• Taxable income: $7,777
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,866
• After-tax cash flow: $6,622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long Creek SD 17
• NCES district ID: 4107530
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 78.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▲ 28.00%
• Median HH income: $38,603
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3363
• State rank: #11 of 58 in OR

Livability — Long Creek

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #20900

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Long Creek, OR
• Population (ZIP): 455

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,485 people
• By 2030: 6,060 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 5,222 · -19.5%
• By 2050: 4,581 · -29.4%
• By 2075: 3,578 · -44.8%
• By 2100: 2,756 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 7% Italian 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 18.4% · R 78.8% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -45.5pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+58.9 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+45.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-50.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $79,000 RMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $84,000 RMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $91,500 RMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $97,500 RMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $100,000 RMLS
• 2025-11-30 Price Changed $105,400 RMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $109,900 RMLS
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $120,000 RMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $152,760 RMLS
• 2025-05-07 Listed $160,800 RMLS

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $740 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.