5246 Karlia Dr · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$530,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,244 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition $162/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home in the highly sought-after community of Maple Ridge, This beautifully maintained lake view 3-bedroom, 2.5 bath residence with a versatile den and a 2 car garage offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. Step inside to discover an open-concept floor plan filled with natural light, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious kitchen features modern appliances and ample cabinetry, featuring hi hats throughout the house, The primary suite provides a peaceful retreat with a generous walk-in closet and a private en-suite bathroom. Two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office, while the den is perf

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Walk-in closet
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $162; Community clubhouse; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (standard)
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Year built: Unknown
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Community pool; Lakefront; Has a view; Faces northwest; Less than one acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Trash compactor; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor entry; Bedroom on main level; Kitchen island; Den
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $530k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-329 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $472k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $454k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $454k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,542/mo this rent would consume 87% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($498k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $454,151 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-61,992
• Equity at exit: $126,710

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-38,970
• Equity at exit: $132,013

Cash invested: $148,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,542 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,779
• Tax from tax record: −$602 /mo · $7,226/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$162
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$954
• Net cashflow: $-329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,957

Max offer price $471,951

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-29	-5% $-179	+0% $-329	+5% $-479	+10% $-629
Rent	-10% $-687	-5% $-508	+0% $-329	+5% $-149	+10% $30
Rate	-1.0pp $-62	-0.5pp $-194	base $-329	+0.5pp $-466	+1.0pp $-606

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,500
• Closing costs: $15,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5077 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2256	$3,950	$1.75	25d	1	0.13mi
5065 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2557	$3,250	$1.27	23d	1	0.15mi
5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$6,850	$3.70	23d	1	0.19mi
5187 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,700	$1.61	23d	1	0.19mi
5414 Espada Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2799	$10,995	$3.93	23d	1	0.20mi
5285 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,600	$1.15	25d	1	0.23mi
5293 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$3,400	$1.51	23d	1	0.25mi
5039 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2341	$5,995	$2.56	25d	1	0.25mi
5089 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2028	$2,300	$1.13	15d	1	0.26mi
5322 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	1918	$2,700	$1.41	15d	1	0.26mi
5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,995	$2.16	25d	1	0.27mi
5412 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,000	$3.56	23d	1	0.28mi
5013 Florence Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,900	$1.29	25d	1	0.29mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,500	$3.78	25d	1	0.29mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct #5545 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2400	$9,000	$3.75	25d	1	0.29mi
5114 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2599	$3,195	$1.23	23d	1	0.30mi
5538 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$6,295	$2.80	23d	1	0.30mi
5428 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$7,895	$3.51	23d	1	0.32mi
5444 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$3,995	$1.78	23d	1	0.36mi
5120 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2273	$3,500	$1.54	13d	1	0.39mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2815 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,700	$1.93	25d	1	0.40mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2826 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$6,495	$4.14	25d	1	0.40mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3026 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,350	$1.50	23d	1	0.41mi
5515 Whistling Straights Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2419	$6,500	$2.69	23d	1	0.46mi
5032 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,595	$1.70	15d	1	0.47mi
5661 Melbourne Ct #8011 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	13d	1	0.47mi
5667 Melbourne Ct #7812 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,250	$3.59	13d	1	0.48mi
4957 Gambero Way Unit 4957 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	1500	$3,400	$2.27	13d	1	0.48mi
5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,695	$2.00	23d	1	0.49mi
4919 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2350	$3,300	$1.40	25d	1	0.49mi
5478 Double Eagle Cir #3521 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$4,995	$3.18	25d	1	0.51mi
5104 Salerno St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2341	$5,595	$2.39	25d	1	0.51mi
5674 Melbourne Ct Unit 7721 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$7,295	$3.46	13d	1	0.52mi
5265 Messina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1929	$4,995	$2.59	25d	1	0.53mi
4925 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1525	$4,000	$2.62	25d	1	0.53mi
5680 Melbourne Ct #7521 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$2,650	$1.26	5d	1	0.53mi
5704 Melbourne Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$3,995	$2.29	25d	1	0.55mi
5374 Ferris Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,350	$1.22	25d	1	0.56mi
5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$10,995	$5.94	25d	1	0.56mi
5739 Oakmont Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$3,700	$2.16	25d	1	0.60mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $162 · $1,944/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $530,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $530,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $530,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $530,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $530,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $530,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $530,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $530,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $530,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $530,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $530,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $530,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $530,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $530,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $530,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $530,000
17. 2026-04-02
    listed $550,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,226 · $602/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,226 · $602/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,688
• − Property taxes: −$7,226
• − Insurance: −$4,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,360
• − Management: −$4,360
• − HOA: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$15,418
• Taxable loss: −$12,972
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,113
• After-tax cash flow: $-830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Maple Ridge offers a spacious floor plan with modern amenities and a lake view. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Both Add smart home features — Modernizes the home and can increase its appeal to tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modernizes the home and can increase its appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $530,000 MARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $550,000 MARMLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,226 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.