23919 Ellie Ln · Primera, TX 78552

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,607 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1983 7,750 sqft lot $128/sqft · 20% below area Est $255k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 23919 Ellie Ln, Harlingen, TX—a beautifully remodeled home in a thriving area! This 3-bed, 2-bath home offers ~1,607 sqft of modern living space. Enjoy an open-concept design with new tile flooring, quartz countertops, and a spacious living area perfect for entertaining. The master suite features a luxurious walk-in shower for a spa-like feel. Located in the Harlingen CISD, top-rated schools are just minutes away. Parks like Arroyo Park and City Lake Park offer scenic trails, playgrounds, and picnic areas, enhancing your outdoor lifestyle. This home is move-in ready with contemporary upgrades in a growing community close to schools, parks, and shopping. Don't miss out—schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• New tile flooring
• Move-in ready

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• NEW TILE FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• MOVE-IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,263 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,662 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,861
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -7.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23717 Sun Chase Cir	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,697 (+6%)	1mo	$240,000	$141	72
2017 Stonebriar Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,730 (+8%)	8mo	$258,000	$149	58
17200 Mandarin Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,487 (-8%)	2mo	$205,000	$138	54
3822 Bea Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,743 (+8%)	12mo	$295,000	$169	53
17282 Mandarin Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,547 (-4%)	16mo	$229,400	$148	52
5113 Doral Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-10%)	3mo	$238,000	$164	50
1206 Rio Panuco Ave	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,730 (+8%)	15mo	$285,000	$165	43
3717 Marco Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,540 (-4%)	22mo	$272,500	$177	40
1206 Poza Rica Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+4%)	24mo	$295,500	$176	37
3705 Marco Ave	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,820 (+13%)	14mo	$299,500	$165	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-45,874
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-68,533
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78552

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 534
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,637 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $187,089

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23861 Ellie Ln Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,650	$1.35	21d	1	0.04mi
1007 El Paso Cir Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,600	$1.33	43d	1	0.40mi
5408 Guava Dr Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1660	$1,400	$0.84	13d	1	0.85mi
1719 Brazo Cir Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	2072	$1,700	$0.82	13d	1	0.99mi
1716 Palm Valley Dr W Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1180	$1,450	$1.23	13d	1	1.01mi
5108 Manana Cir Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,900	$1.10	13d	1	1.08mi
1500 Palm Valley Dr W #12 Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1625	$1,350	$0.83	13d	1	1.10mi
17931 Spruce St Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,850	$1.44	43d	1	1.33mi
5611 La Estrella Cir Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	2218	$2,295	$1.03	13d	1	1.46mi
18586 Primera Rd Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,095	$1.00	43d	1	1.48mi
5316 Palm Valley Dr S Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	2090	$2,100	$1.00	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $205,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on marketlisting id $205,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $235,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $235,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-02-10
    price $235,000 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    Welcome to 23919 Ellie Ln, Harlingen, TX—a beautifully remodeled home in a thriving area! This 3-bed, 2-bath home offers ~1,607 sqft of modern living space. Enjoy an open-concept design with new tile flooring, quartz countertops, and a spacious living area perfect for entertaining. The master suite features a luxurious walk-in shower for a spa-like feel. Located in the Harlingen CISD, top-rated schools are just minutes away. Parks like Arroyo Park and City Lake Park offer scenic trails, playgrounds, and picnic areas, enhancing your outdoor lifestyle. This home is move-in ready with contemporary upgrades in a growing community close to schools, parks, and shopping. Don't miss out—schedule a showing today!

11. 2026-01-09
    listed $210,000 Active 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    Welcome to 23919 Ellie Ln, Harlingen, TX—a beautifully remodeled home in a thriving area! This 3-bed, 2-bath home offers ~1,607 sqft of modern living space. Enjoy an open-concept design with new tile flooring, quartz countertops, and a spacious living area perfect for entertaining. The master suite features a luxurious walk-in shower for a spa-like feel. Located in the Harlingen CISD, top-rated schools are just minutes away. Parks like Arroyo Park and City Lake Park offer scenic trails, playgrounds, and picnic areas, enhancing your outdoor lifestyle. This home is move-in ready with contemporary upgrades in a growing community close to schools, parks, and shopping. Don't miss out—schedule a showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,571
• − Management: −$1,571
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$5,050
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,212
• After-tax cash flow: $-273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlingen CISD
• NCES district ID: 4822530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,182
• Composite: 24.94/100
• National rank: #7566
• State rank: #647 of 826 in TX

Livability — Primera

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1263
• US rank: #21994

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Primera, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 95,667
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,332
• Household income: $69,811
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 31% White 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.61%
• Current HPI: 197.1906
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.87%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $235,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $210,000 RGVMLS