8004 Vanilla Orchid Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$293,513

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,940 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $314k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

The Lowry plan is a 2-story home with 4 bedrooms up, 2.5 baths, family room, and dining area. The kitchen offers plenty of counter space including a peninsula with space for seating.

Key facts

• 2 story home
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Tags

• 2 STORY HOME
• PLENTY OF COUNTER SPACE
• PENINSULA WITH SEATING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 8004 Vanilla Orchid Dr, Houston, TX 77016; Listing modified May 30, 2026
• Financial info: List price $293,513

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property (The Lowry)
• Exterior features: Living area 1940

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home (The Lowry plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $294k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-346 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marshall El (math 11% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,127 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 610 students, 98% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,130/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $212,956 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.05%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $314,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8202 Burnt Orchid Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,881 (-3%)	1mo	$297,900	$158	82
8105 Burnt Orchid Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,745 (-10%)	1mo	$284,990	$163	77
8121 Burnt Orchid Dr	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,111 (+9%)	2mo	$304,042	$144	76
8127 Vanilla Orchid Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	1,745 (-10%)	1mo	$284,990	$163	74
8128 Vanilla Orchid Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5	1,745 (-10%)	2mo	$289,990	$166	74
10331 Vinca Minor Ln	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-6%)	1mo	$296,040	$162	72
7907 Elowen Grove Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-6%)	1mo	$295,540	$162	72
7917 Elowen Grove Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,121 (+9%)	1mo	$309,290	$146	72
10319 Vinca Minor Ln	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-6%)	0mo	$296,290	$162	71
7905 Elowen Grove Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,121 (+9%)	2mo	$306,040	$144	70
10309 Vinca Minor Ln	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,121 (+9%)	2mo	$306,290	$144	68
7816 Laurel Gem Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-6%)	2mo	$288,740	$158	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $105,845
• Equity at exit: $236,065

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.83×
• Total profit: $314,548
• Equity at exit: $481,639

Cash invested: $82,184 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,130 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,539
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$367 /mo · $4,403/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,568

Max offer price $243,439

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-143	-5% $-245	+0% $-346	+5% $-447	+10% $-549
Rent	-10% $-514	-5% $-430	+0% $-346	+5% $-262	+10% $-178
Rate	-1.0pp $-198	-0.5pp $-271	base $-346	+0.5pp $-422	+1.0pp $-499

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,378
• Closing costs: $8,805
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	45d	1	0.08mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,520	$1.49	9d	1	0.09mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	26d	1	0.30mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	9d	1	0.44mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,865	$2.58	0d	1	0.51mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	9d	1	0.57mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	45d	1	0.67mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	20d	1	0.67mi
8314 Madera Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,495	$0.93	26d	1	0.76mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	7d	1	0.79mi
7223 Valmont Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1546	$1,595	$1.03	45d	1	0.79mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	45d	1	0.95mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	18d	1	0.95mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	16d	1	1.00mi
8235 Locksley Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,525	$0.95	9d	1	1.05mi
7426 Bigwood St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1997	$1,850	$0.93	16d	1	1.06mi
9702 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,550	$0.96	45d	1	1.25mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	24d	1	1.28mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	26d	1	1.47mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1650	$1,650	$1.00	0d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $293,513 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $293,513 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $293,513 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $293,513 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $293,513 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $293,513 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $293,513 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $293,513 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $293,513 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $293,513 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,441
• − Property taxes: −$4,403
• − Insurance: −$1,468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,044
• − Management: −$2,044
• − Depreciation: −$8,539
• Taxable loss: −$9,384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,252
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B