416 40th St E · Memphis, FL 34221

$384,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1981 9,627 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Turn-key cashflow! Both units are spacious 2 bedroom/ 2 bathroom with central HVAC and individual W/ D hookups. Property has been well maintained with long term tenants in place. High demand area-- excellent location in close proximity to Manatee beaches and easy access to I275. Downtown St Petersburg is literally 20 minutes away just over the Skyway Bridge! Each unit has 2 designated off-street parking spots on paved parking area. Rents for identical units across the street support a market rent of $1250/mo in current condition. Remodeled units have even greater revenue potential.

Key facts

• Updated duplex
• Two separate units
• Outdoor space

Tags

• UPDATED DUPLEX
• TWO SEPARATE UNITS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY STORAGE ROOM
• PRIVATELY FENCED YARDS
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• EASY ACCESS TO US-41

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential Income; Property subtype: Duplex; Total buildings: 1; Total acreage: 0.22 acres; Zoning: RSF6; Two rental units (both 2-bedroom, ~972 heated area each); Living area 1,944 sq ft; building area 2,088 sq ft
• Financial info: Gross income: $43,200; Annual net income: $35,500; Tenant pays electricity, gas, sewer, trash collection and water
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water (multiple meters); Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Phone available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Duplex (Residential Income); One story; Slab foundation
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio with screened area; Fenced yard; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included in kitchen/family room combo; Solid wood cabinets
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Two 2-bedroom units (unit #416 and unit #418)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $384k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $539 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $269/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $384k).
• Recommended offer: $372k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Palmetto Elementary School (math 53% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 570 students, 78% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,911/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1193% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($372k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $310k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $372,480 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.01%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-39,392
• Equity at exit: $57,256

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-34,448
• Equity at exit: $33,201

Cash invested: $107,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,911 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,014
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,529/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$821
• Net cashflow: $539

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,229

Max offer price $384,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $756	-5% $647	+0% $539	+5% $430	+10% $321
Rent	-10% $230	-5% $384	+0% $539	+5% $693	+10% $847
Rate	-1.0pp $732	-0.5pp $636	base $539	+0.5pp $439	+1.0pp $338

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$3,912
Total (2 units)			$3,911

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,000
• Closing costs: $11,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4620 1st Ave E #4620 Palmetto, FL	3.0	3.0	1959	$1,950	$1.00	24d	1	0.46mi
4633 1st Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1586	$1,875	$1.18	4d	1	0.49mi
4721 1st Ave E #4721 Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,000	$1.37	24d	1	0.51mi
4207 5th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$3,000	$1.72	24d	1	0.57mi
105 2nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,895	$1.21	24d	1	0.63mi
105 2nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,895	$1.21	13d	1	0.63mi
110 49th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	4d	1	0.65mi
3222 6th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,185	$1.55	24d	1	0.87mi
2615 9th Avenue Dr E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1369	$2,200	$1.61	24d	1	0.91mi
2211 11th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1285	$2,195	$1.71	17d	1	1.20mi
3115 Live Oak Ln #30 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1253	$3,695	$2.95	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $384,000 Active
3. 2021-12-31
   soldstatus $310,000 Closed 588-char remark

   Show marketing remark (588 chars)

   Turn-key cashflow! Both units are spacious 2 bedroom/ 2 bathroom with central HVAC and individual W/ D hookups. Property has been well maintained with long term tenants in place. High demand area-- excellent location in close proximity to Manatee beaches and easy access to I275. Downtown St Petersburg is literally 20 minutes away just over the Skyway Bridge! Each unit has 2 designated off-street parking spots on paved parking area. Rents for identical units across the street support a market rent of $1250/mo in current condition. Remodeled units have even greater revenue potential.

4. 2021-11-23
   status Pending 588-char remark

   Show marketing remark (588 chars)

   Turn-key cashflow! Both units are spacious 2 bedroom/ 2 bathroom with central HVAC and individual W/ D hookups. Property has been well maintained with long term tenants in place. High demand area-- excellent location in close proximity to Manatee beaches and easy access to I275. Downtown St Petersburg is literally 20 minutes away just over the Skyway Bridge! Each unit has 2 designated off-street parking spots on paved parking area. Rents for identical units across the street support a market rent of $1250/mo in current condition. Remodeled units have even greater revenue potential.

5. 2021-11-15
   listed $284,900 Active 588-char remark

   Show marketing remark (588 chars)

   Turn-key cashflow! Both units are spacious 2 bedroom/ 2 bathroom with central HVAC and individual W/ D hookups. Property has been well maintained with long term tenants in place. High demand area-- excellent location in close proximity to Manatee beaches and easy access to I275. Downtown St Petersburg is literally 20 minutes away just over the Skyway Bridge! Each unit has 2 designated off-street parking spots on paved parking area. Rents for identical units across the street support a market rent of $1250/mo in current condition. Remodeled units have even greater revenue potential.

6. 2002-10-29
   soldstatus $85,500
7. 1997-04-01
   soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,529 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,529 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,510
• − Property taxes: −$4,529
• − Insurance: −$1,920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,755
• − Management: −$3,755
• − Depreciation: −$11,171
• Taxable income: $293
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$70
• After-tax cash flow: $6,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Memphis, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+351.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Listed $384,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-31 Sold (MLS) $310,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-15 Listed $284,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $85,500 Public Records
• 1997-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,529 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.