2240 Golden Oak Ln #3 · Merced, CA 95341

$110,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,750 sqft · Manufactured · 166 Days on market

Built 1976 $63/sqft · 42% above area Est $78k · 42% over ↓ 60% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2 bedroom, 2 bath with convenient expando. (You could easily add a 3rd or 4th bedroom. ) New interior paint. Enter into the spacious living room with formal dining area with built-in china cabinet. Large kitchen with breakfast bar that opens up to the nook/family room with built-in bar. Office niche with shelving. Primary bedroom with primary bathroom suite boasting a garden tub and separate shower. Second bedroom has private access to the hall bathroom laundry area with cabinets. Enjoy your private back yard with shed. Walk across the street and recreation awaits. This double wide mobile home is in the coveted Sierra Portal Mobile Home Park, gated senior living community with pool, spa, sauna, clubhouse, activities, parks and more. Near shopping, community park, schools, restaurants too. Make this yours today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Remodeled kitchen
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• SIERRA PORTAL GATED COMMUNITY
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• INSIDE LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $111k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $892 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $111k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.4% in Merced — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#153 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $767 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 17% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $111k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,592 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.19%
• DSCR: 2.74
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $77,950
• List price: $110,900
• Delta: 42.27%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2240 Golden Oak Ln #44	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,832 (+5%)	18mo	$110,000	$60	74
2240 Golden Oak Ln #1	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-12%)	23mo	$95,000	$62	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $36,108
• Equity at exit: $16,536

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $93,695
• Equity at exit: $9,589

Cash invested: $31,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95341

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,108 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$582
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $276/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $892

Break-even live

Break-even rent $979

Max offer price $110,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,725
• Closing costs: $3,327
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1880 Barnett Way Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,975	$1.54	13d	1	0.51mi
2632 Story Ave Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,150	$1.67	13d	1	0.55mi
2210 Birchwood Ct Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,150	$1.56	13d	1	0.75mi
341 Brad Ct Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,275	$1.61	13d	1	1.06mi
2340 Circle Dr Merced, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,900	$1.52	13d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,900 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,900 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,900 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,900 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,900 Active 161 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,900 Active 160 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,900 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,900 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,900 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,900 Active 155 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,900 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,900 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,900 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,900 Active 149 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    remarks 619-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,900 Active 148 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,900 Active 147 DOM
18. 2025-03-14
    soldstatus $40,000 Closed Sale 832-char remark

    Show marketing remark (832 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom, 2 bath with convenient expando. (You could easily add a 3rd or 4th bedroom. ) New interior paint. Enter into the spacious living room with formal dining area with built-in china cabinet. Large kitchen with breakfast bar that opens up to the nook/family room with built-in bar. Office niche with shelving. Primary bedroom with primary bathroom suite boasting a garden tub and separate shower. Second bedroom has private access to the hall bathroom laundry area with cabinets. Enjoy your private back yard with shed. Walk across the street and recreation awaits. This double wide mobile home is in the coveted Sierra Portal Mobile Home Park, gated senior living community with pool, spa, sauna, clubhouse, activities, parks and more. Near shopping, community park, schools, restaurants too. Make this yours today!

19. 2025-02-19
    status Pending Sale 832-char remark

    Show marketing remark (832 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom, 2 bath with convenient expando. (You could easily add a 3rd or 4th bedroom. ) New interior paint. Enter into the spacious living room with formal dining area with built-in china cabinet. Large kitchen with breakfast bar that opens up to the nook/family room with built-in bar. Office niche with shelving. Primary bedroom with primary bathroom suite boasting a garden tub and separate shower. Second bedroom has private access to the hall bathroom laundry area with cabinets. Enjoy your private back yard with shed. Walk across the street and recreation awaits. This double wide mobile home is in the coveted Sierra Portal Mobile Home Park, gated senior living community with pool, spa, sauna, clubhouse, activities, parks and more. Near shopping, community park, schools, restaurants too. Make this yours today!

20. 2025-02-01
    price $64,900 832-char remark

    Show marketing remark (832 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom, 2 bath with convenient expando. (You could easily add a 3rd or 4th bedroom. ) New interior paint. Enter into the spacious living room with formal dining area with built-in china cabinet. Large kitchen with breakfast bar that opens up to the nook/family room with built-in bar. Office niche with shelving. Primary bedroom with primary bathroom suite boasting a garden tub and separate shower. Second bedroom has private access to the hall bathroom laundry area with cabinets. Enjoy your private back yard with shed. Walk across the street and recreation awaits. This double wide mobile home is in the coveted Sierra Portal Mobile Home Park, gated senior living community with pool, spa, sauna, clubhouse, activities, parks and more. Near shopping, community park, schools, restaurants too. Make this yours today!

21. 2025-01-27
    price $74,900 832-char remark

    Show marketing remark (832 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom, 2 bath with convenient expando. (You could easily add a 3rd or 4th bedroom. ) New interior paint. Enter into the spacious living room with formal dining area with built-in china cabinet. Large kitchen with breakfast bar that opens up to the nook/family room with built-in bar. Office niche with shelving. Primary bedroom with primary bathroom suite boasting a garden tub and separate shower. Second bedroom has private access to the hall bathroom laundry area with cabinets. Enjoy your private back yard with shed. Walk across the street and recreation awaits. This double wide mobile home is in the coveted Sierra Portal Mobile Home Park, gated senior living community with pool, spa, sauna, clubhouse, activities, parks and more. Near shopping, community park, schools, restaurants too. Make this yours today!

22. 2025-01-03
    price $99,000 832-char remark

    Show marketing remark (832 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom, 2 bath with convenient expando. (You could easily add a 3rd or 4th bedroom. ) New interior paint. Enter into the spacious living room with formal dining area with built-in china cabinet. Large kitchen with breakfast bar that opens up to the nook/family room with built-in bar. Office niche with shelving. Primary bedroom with primary bathroom suite boasting a garden tub and separate shower. Second bedroom has private access to the hall bathroom laundry area with cabinets. Enjoy your private back yard with shed. Walk across the street and recreation awaits. This double wide mobile home is in the coveted Sierra Portal Mobile Home Park, gated senior living community with pool, spa, sauna, clubhouse, activities, parks and more. Near shopping, community park, schools, restaurants too. Make this yours today!

23. 2024-05-17
    listed $95,000 Active 832-char remark

    Show marketing remark (832 chars)

    Beautiful 2 bedroom, 2 bath with convenient expando. (You could easily add a 3rd or 4th bedroom. ) New interior paint. Enter into the spacious living room with formal dining area with built-in china cabinet. Large kitchen with breakfast bar that opens up to the nook/family room with built-in bar. Office niche with shelving. Primary bedroom with primary bathroom suite boasting a garden tub and separate shower. Second bedroom has private access to the hall bathroom laundry area with cabinets. Enjoy your private back yard with shed. Walk across the street and recreation awaits. This double wide mobile home is in the coveted Sierra Portal Mobile Home Park, gated senior living community with pool, spa, sauna, clubhouse, activities, parks and more. Near shopping, community park, schools, restaurants too. Make this yours today!

24. 2023-10-05
    status Pending Sale
25. 2023-10-04
    historical
26. 2023-08-31
    price $55,000
27. 2023-07-26
    price $67,000
28. 2023-06-18
    price $90,000
29. 2023-06-17
    listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $276 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $843 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: +$567/yr (+$47/mo · 205.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AO · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,212
• − Property taxes: −$276
• − Insurance: −$2,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,023
• − Management: −$2,023
• − Depreciation: −$3,226
• Taxable income: $9,508
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,282
• After-tax cash flow: $8,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Merced

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #153
• US rank: #5111

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Merced, CA
• County: Merced County · 205,386 people
• City population: 112,228
• Metro: Merced, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,385
• Household income: $57,342
• Rent vs Own: 61.5% rent · 38.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1419.0

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 73% White 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 70%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 55% Other Asian/Pacific 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.65%
• Current HPI: 314.4223
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• Metro: Merced, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-59.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-14 Sold (MLS) $40,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-19 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $64,900 CRMLS
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $74,900 CRMLS
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-17 Listed $95,000 CRMLS
• 2023-10-05 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-10-04 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-08-31 Price Changed $55,000 CRMLS
• 2023-07-26 Price Changed $67,000 CRMLS
• 2023-06-18 Price Changed $90,000 CRMLS
• 2023-06-17 Listed $99,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2020): $276 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.