1707 Key St · Waller, TX 77484

$220,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,808 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1960 0.30 ac lot $122/sqft · 23% below area Est $284k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks

* ROOF 2018 * PEX Plumbing 2021 * 3 bedroom/3 FULL bath, single story home is just over 1,800 square feet on a large fenced lot with NO HOA! Updated kitchen- gorgeous quartz countertops, white subway tile backsplash, deep undermount sink and stainless steel appliances- refrigerator stays. Breakfast room with views of the oversized deck/backyard- a relaxing spot to enjoy your morning coffee. Spacious family room to gather w/ friends and family. Updated windows and tons of natural light throughout the home. Formal dining room w/ space for a large table for big gatherings. Don't need for a formal dining room? Use this space as a playroom or office. The primary bedroom is spacious w/ private

Key facts

• Pex plumbing 2021
• Quartz countertops
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• ROOF 2018
• PEX PLUMBING 2021
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• DEEP UNDERMOUNT SINK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces east; Entry on first floor
• Construction: Built in 1960; Cement siding and wood siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Private yard; Fence (back yard); Paved driveway; Storage shed(s); Side yard; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range / Free‑standing range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Quartz counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 14 x 12; Bedroom (First floor) — 11.5 x 13; Bedroom (First floor) — 18 x 11; Total rooms: 12; Bonus room (First floor) — 13 x 9
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (First floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Crown molding; Quartz counters; Soaking tub; Tub/shower combination; Window treatments; Ceiling fan(s); Handicap access (accessible bedroom, common area, closets, and approach with ramp); Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (First floor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-230 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.0% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1196 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $220k implies a 331% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,697 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.48%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,152
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -18.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2710 Dewey St	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,808 (0%)	19mo	$305,000	$169	75
2506 Brazeal St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,565 (-13%)	9mo	$248,500	$159	47
520 Walnut St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-14%)	7mo	$259,000	$166	39
603 Penick Rd	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,687 (-7%)	22mo	$250,000	$148	37
31910 Waller Tomball Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,560 (-14%)	20mo	$160,000	$103	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-55,383
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-86,726
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1196
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$380 /mo · $4,566/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,058

Max offer price $179,377

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-105	-5% $-168	+0% $-230	+5% $-292	+10% $-354
Rent	-10% $-370	-5% $-300	+0% $-230	+5% $-160	+10% $-90
Rate	-1.0pp $-119	-0.5pp $-174	base $-230	+0.5pp $-287	+1.0pp $-345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
510 Alliance St Waller, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	44d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $220,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $220,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on marketlisting id $220,000 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $232,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $232,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-04-09
    listed $2,100
15. 2026-04-08
    price $232,000 988-char remark
16. 2026-03-13
    price $240,000 988-char remark
17. 2026-01-15
    listed $250,000 Active 988-char remark
18. 2025-12-31
    historical
19. 2025-11-25
    price $269,000
20. 2025-10-29
    status Active
21. 2025-09-09
    historical
22. 2025-07-07
    price $299,000
23. 2025-06-17
    price $315,000
24. 2025-06-12
    price $324,000
25. 2025-06-05
    listed $329,000 Active
26. 1990-12-12
    soldstatus $51,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,566 · $380/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,566 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$4,566
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$6,578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,579
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waller, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-96.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $232,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $324,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Listed $329,000 HARMLS
• 1990-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,566 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.