512 4th Ave S · Grand Forks, ND 58201

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,431 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1893 3,000 sqft lot Est $293k · 49% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Main-floor laundry
• 3,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• MAIN-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• WELCOMING STATEMENT ENTRYWAY
• DETACHED TWO-STALL GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax reported

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Home design: Two-level single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Above-grade finished area reported as 1,431 (total building area reported separately)
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 50 x 60 (3,000 sq ft)

Interior

• Interior features: 11 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $570 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.2% in Grand Forks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#8 in ND, #2,645 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+.
• Grand Forks 1 (urban): math 37% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #27 of 53 in ND (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Phoenix Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #137 of 236 statewide, top 63%, 260 students, 45% FRL); Valley Middle School (math 22% / reading 40%, grade F, #31 of 35 statewide, top 88%, 513 students, 56% FRL); Central High School (math 29% / reading 56%, grade F, #48 of 144 statewide, top 33%, 1,093 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 29% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.3%/yr); 287 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 133 units permitted in Grand Forks County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grand Forks County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1893 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1893 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.28%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $293,355
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1010 Chestnut St	0.50mi	4/2.5	1,404 (-2%)	2mo	$305,000	$217	70
824 Chestnut St	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,344 (-6%)	3mo	$236,900	$176	69
920 Cherry St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (+4%)	2mo	$222,000	$150	66
209 Cottonwood St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (-14%)	4mo	$255,000	$208	62
907 9th St	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,296 (-9%)	1mo	$310,000	$239	60
1006 Cottonwood St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-6%)	3mo	$275,000	$205	60
823 S 9th St	0.47mi	4/1.0	1,313 (-8%)	6mo	$235,000	$179	55
1205 S 9th St	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,369 (-4%)	8mo	$299,900	$219	55
1317 Chestnut Street St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,420 (-1%)	6mo	$249,900	$176	54
503 N 4th St	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,360 (-5%)	9mo	$107,000	$79	52
1006 S 9th St	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,290 (-10%)	3mo	$319,500	$248	48
1314 Cottonwood St	0.72mi	4/3.0	1,614 (+13%)	1mo	$298,900	$185	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $22,106
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $112,050
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58201

• Rents YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,171/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $570

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,198

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $655	-5% $612	+0% $570	+5% $527	+10% $485
Rent	-10% $418	-5% $494	+0% $570	+5% $646	+10% $721
Rate	-1.0pp $645	-0.5pp $608	base $570	+0.5pp $531	+1.0pp $491

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
214 N 4th St Grand Forks, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$2,345	$2.41	45d	1	0.53mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   statusdays on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on marketlisting id $150,000 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,900 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $179,900
16. 2026-04-14
    price $185,000
17. 2026-03-25
    price $195,000
18. 2026-02-17
    listed $200,000 Active
19. 2014-10-22
    soldstatus
20. 2014-10-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,171 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,470 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$299/yr (+$25/mo · 25.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,171
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,843
• − Management: −$1,843
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $4,663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $5,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grand Forks 1
• NCES district ID: 3808130
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,234
• Composite: 36.39/100
• National rank: #4681
• State rank: #27 of 53 in ND

Livability — Grand Forks

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #2645

Category grades

Amenities B Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grand Forks, ND
• County: Grand Forks County · 58,851 people
• City population: 58,851
• Metro: Grand Forks, ND-MN
• Population (ZIP): 42,373
• Household income: $68,143
• Rent vs Own: 50.3% rent · 49.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2110.0

Population outlook (Grand Forks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,606 people
• By 2030: 86,489 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 99,506 · +23.4%
• By 2050: 115,269 · +43.0%
• By 2075: 171,303 · +112.5%
• By 2100: 238,330 · +195.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 26% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grand Forks

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.1% · R 58.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+13.3 2016: R+18.5 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.56%
• Current HPI: 183.128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.31%
• Metro: Grand Forks, ND-MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $179,900 GFAAR
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $185,000 GFAAR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $195,000 GFAAR
• 2026-02-17 Listed $200,000 GFAAR
• 2014-10-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,171 · -48.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.