4205 Oats St · Houston, TX 77020

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 604 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1929 4,586 sqft lot ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Excellent development opportunity in the growing Fifth Ward area of Houston. The property is being sold for lot value only and the existing structure is considered a tear-down. This block is experiencing strong new construction activity, with multiple recently completed and ongoing developments nearby. The lot is well suited for a new single-family build or potential small development project. Conveniently located just minutes from Downtown Houston, major employment centers, and freeway access, making it an attractive opportunity for builders and investors.

Key facts

• Freeway access
• Ongoing developments
• Lot value

Tags

• DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITY
• LOT VALUE
• NEW CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY
• ONGOING DEVELOPMENTS
• FREEWAY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1929; One-story
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the first level (approx. 10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: 1 total room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Atherton El (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #4,021 of 4,322 statewide, top 94%, 433 students, 96% FRL); Fleming Middle (math 10% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 384 students, 97% FRL); Wheatley H S (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 643 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,362 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $51,340
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4018 Lelia St	0.74mi	1/1.0	576 (-5%)	14mo	$49,000	$85	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $61,762
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.46×
• Total profit: $191,173
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,081 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,432/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,236

Max offer price $103,362

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-52	-5% $-87	+0% $-122	+5% $-158	+10% $-193
Rent	-10% $-208	-5% $-165	+0% $-122	+5% $-80	+10% $-37
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-91	base $-122	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-188

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1909 Benson St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	460	$795	$1.73	20d	1	0.16mi
1911 Benson St Unit 1 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	460	$795	$1.73	20d	1	0.16mi
1911 Benson St Unit 4 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	460	$795	$1.73	7d	1	0.16mi
2202 Solo St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	620	$1,200	$1.94	45d	1	0.46mi
4903 Noble St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	525	$1,200	$2.29	45d	1	0.47mi
3502 Campbell St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	725	$800	$1.10	45d	1	0.52mi
3031 Sumpter St Unit 50 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	732	$1,200	$1.64	26d	1	0.66mi
3031 Sumpter St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	502	$850	$1.69	26d	1	0.66mi
3031 Sumpter St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	502	$850	$1.69	15d	1	0.66mi
1412 Sydnor St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	507	$800	$1.58	45d	1	0.68mi
1412 Sydnor St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	507	$800	$1.58	26d	1	0.68mi
1412 Sydnor St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	500	$700	$1.40	14d	1	0.68mi
1412 Sydnor St Unit 7 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	500	$650	$1.30	15d	1	0.68mi
1412 Sydnor St Unit 5 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	500	$700	$1.40	15d	1	0.68mi
5408 Market St Unit 5408-1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	730	$900	$1.23	7d	1	0.76mi
4249 Clinton Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	692	$1,950	$2.82	4d	1	0.87mi
3019 Florida St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	576	$950	$1.65	45d	1	0.94mi
3499 Clinton Dr Houston, TX	—	1.0	548	$1,299	$2.37	45d	1	1.00mi
3813 Wipprecht St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	26d	1	1.19mi
3806 Wipprecht St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$700	$0.93	15d	1	1.20mi
3814 Wipprecht St Unit 18B Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$700	$0.93	18d	1	1.21mi
5504 Morwood St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$850	$1.13	26d	1	1.25mi
5510 Morwood St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	26d	1	1.27mi
5514 Morgood St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	45d	1	1.29mi
800 Middle St Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,046	$1.04	7d	1	1.33mi
2810 Riverby Rd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	692	$1,950	$2.82	4d	1	1.34mi
5436 Makeig St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	26d	1	1.38mi
5430 Makeig St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	26d	1	1.40mi
5462 Makeig St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	749	$650	$0.87	26d	1	1.41mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$2,546	$2.92	22d	16	1.44mi
91 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	970	$2,007	$2.07	0d	67	1.44mi
1519 McKee St Unit 5 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,200	$1.85	16d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $125,000 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $125,000 Active Under Contract 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $125,000 Active Under Contract 57 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active Under Contract 56 DOM
5. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
7. 2026-03-08
   listed $125,000 Active
8. 2022-10-11
   status Pending
9. 2022-10-07
   historical
10. 2022-09-07
    listed $127,500 Active
11. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,432 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,432 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,432
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,038
• − Management: −$1,038
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$3,593
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$862
• After-tax cash flow: $-607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-08 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-10-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-09-07 Listed $127,500 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,432 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.