3431 Ichabod Way · The Villages, FL 32163

$379,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,559 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2014 5,480 sqft lot Est $382k · at est. $204/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The Villages LOCATION ALERT !! This beautiful TURNKEY Allamanda model home is nestled in the highly desirable Village of Hillsborough. Offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,559 sq. ft. of air-conditioned living space, this beautiful residence perfectly captures The Villages lifestyle. NEW ROOF 2026 NEW HVAC 2023 Step inside to discover an open, inviting floor plan beautifully enhanced by luxury vinyl plank flooring. The well-appointed kitchen features elegant cabinetry, quality countertops, white appliances, and a convenient breakfast bar — ideal for casual dining and entertaining. The spacious primary suite boasts dual walk-in closets and a luxurious ensuite bath w

Key facts

• Split bedroom design
• New roof
• 5,480 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• GLASS ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM
• EXPANSIVE SCREENED LANAI
• SPLIT BEDROOM DESIGN
• GOLF CART ACCESS TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 5,480 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $361k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $345k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $345k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $262k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $344,578 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.23%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $381,955
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3394 Ridgewood Path	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,559 (0%)	5mo	$382,500	$245	93
1393 Ducksbury St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+1%)	6mo	$380,000	$241	80
3448 Inverary Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-11%)	3mo	$330,000	$237	77
3447 Ridgewood Path	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,611 (+3%)	16mo	$420,000	$261	76
1494 Walnut Way	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,625 (+4%)	12mo	$394,300	$243	72
3632 Ukulele St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,597 (+2%)	5mo	$375,000	$235	67
1683 Shale Trail Loop	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,689 (+8%)	15mo	$405,000	$240	63
3729 Orient Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,579 (+1%)	17mo	$450,000	$285	60
3707 Gravel Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,510 (-3%)	15mo	$335,000	$222	59
1143 Barrineau Pl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+3%)	14mo	$457,000	$284	51
1309 Piney Woods Path	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,699 (+9%)	8mo	$504,000	$297	49
3639 Fulcrum Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,407 (-10%)	19mo	$350,000	$249	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $200,141
• Equity at exit: $342,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $595,195
• Equity at exit: $738,062

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32163

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,446 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$477 /mo · $5,719/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$724
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,584

Max offer price $360,647

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3394 Ridgewood Path The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1559	$4,000	$2.57	21d	1	0.07mi
3314 Abana Path Unit 1525266P The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,770	$1.13	21d	1	0.73mi
964 Wren St The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1161	$2,200	$1.89	21d	1	1.06mi
3068 Islawild Way The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,200	$1.43	21d	1	1.21mi
2875 Rain Lily Loop The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1965	$4,490	$2.28	21d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $379,900 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $379,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $379,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on marketlisting id $379,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $395,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $395,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2025-11-09
    listed $395,000 Active
17. 2019-12-31
    soldstatus $262,500
18. 2015-08-10
    soldstatus $222,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,719 · $477/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,719 · $477/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$5,719
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,308
• − Management: −$3,308
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable loss: −$7,665
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,840
• After-tax cash flow: $532/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,549
• Household income: $96,775
• Rent vs Own: 5.7% rent · 94.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.47%
• Current HPI: 229.0075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+77.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-09 Listed $395,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2019-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $262,500 Public Records
• 2015-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $222,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,719 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.