12729 Lily Quartz Loop · Ruskin, FL 34219

$240,200

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,522 sqft · Townhouse · 96 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home offers lavish living with two luxurious owner's suites, each featuring an en-suite bathroom with a dual-sink vanity and walk-in closet. The main part of the home is host to a flexible and spacious open-concept design shared between the kitchen and living room that flows effortlessly to a covered lanai for seamless indoor-outdoor experiences.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Walk-in closet
• Dual-sink vanity

Tags

• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• DUAL-SINK VANITY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• COVERED LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $253,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces (2-car garage)
• Home design: Single-family property (Napa plan)
• Exterior features: 1522 living area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Napa plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $240k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $219k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,582 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.97%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-24,980
• Equity at exit: $35,815

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-22,758
• Equity at exit: $20,768

Cash invested: $67,256 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,260
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,603/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,101

Max offer price $240,200

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,050
• Closing costs: $7,206
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	16d	1	1.28mi
10473 Curving Creek Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,200 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,200 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,200 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $240,200 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,100 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,100 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,100 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,100 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,100 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $240,100 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $239,900 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $243,900 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $243,900 Active 78 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,455
• − Property taxes: −$3,603
• − Insurance: −$1,201
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,424
• − Management: −$2,424
• − Depreciation: −$6,988
• Taxable income: $202
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$48
• After-tax cash flow: $3,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious and open-concept design, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding and repainting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating countertops and appliances in the kitchen — Modernizing the kitchen can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Installing smart home technology — Smart home features can improve convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract more interest from potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding and repainting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating countertops and appliances in the kitchen — Modernizing the kitchen can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Installing smart home technology — Smart home features can improve convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract more interest from potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B