1012 Butcherknife Rd · Haysi, VA 24256

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 990 sqft · Other public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1970

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks

Very nice older home, windows and heat pump about 7 years old

Key facts

• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($891 rent vs $50k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#560 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Buchanan County Public School District (rural): math 52% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #76 of 131 in VA (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $914 appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Buchanan County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.14%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $29,091
• Equity at exit: $19,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $70,900
• Equity at exit: $27,387

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24256

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $891 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $133/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $372

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $133 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $410 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: +$277/yr (+$23/mo · 208.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$133
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$856
• − Management: −$856
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $4,346
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,043
• After-tax cash flow: $3,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buchanan County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $29,669
• Composite: 47.84/100
• National rank: #2221
• State rank: #76 of 131 in VA

Livability — Haysi

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #560
• US rank: #26456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,965
• Population (ZIP): 2,965

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,160 people
• By 2030: 18,734 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 16,071 · -20.3%
• By 2050: 13,815 · -31.5%
• By 2075: 10,376 · -48.5%
• By 2100: 8,432 · -58.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.6) · D 14.5% · R 85.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -65.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.5pp · 2024: -70.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.6 2020: R+67.6 2016: R+60.4 2012: R+34.7 2008: R+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.83%
• Current HPI: 147.065
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $50,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $133 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.