444 SE Castillo Ter · Lake City, FL 32025

$217,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 656 Days on market

Built 1958 7,187 sqft lot Est $173k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Newly Renovated 4Bed 2Bath Home in Lake City, FL near the beautiful Springs. This stunning home offers modern amenities, fixtures, recess lighting, and LED smart mirrors with classic charm! Featuring an open- split floor plan concept layout, perfect for entertaining guest and privacy. The kitchen features new stainless steel appliances, custom cabinets with touch of Gold, classic backsplash & countertops. Enjoy the luxurious master suite with a en-suite bath. 2 fully updated bathrooms with 3 additional spacious bedrooms provide ample space for family and guests. The expansive backyard and patio area perfect for outdoor fire-pit & BBQ. Located in quite neighborhood with easy acce

Key facts

• 7,187 sq ft lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 655 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property identified as zoning X; No waterfront; Universal property ID on file
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Property is residential (single family); Lot about 0.16 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• HOA & community: No HOA association listed

Exterior

• Parking: No parking information listed
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: No water source listed; No sewer listed; Other utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Facing east
• Construction: Other construction materials; Built-up roof; Other foundation details; Approximately built area 1,536 square feet
• Exterior features: Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating listed; No cooling listed
• Interior features: No interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $217k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($468/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 656 days — a 12% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $217k implies a 234% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,235 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 656 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
246 SE Lochlynn Ter	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+1%)	6mo	$259,000	$193	81
492 SE Lomond Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,390 (+5%)	6mo	$112,500	$81	76
1047 SE Putnam St	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,256 (-5%)	3mo	$76,500	$61	75
319 SE Avalon Ave	0.24mi	3/3.0	1,344 (+1%)	8mo	$174,400	$130	72
993 SE Putnam St	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,438 (+8%)	6mo	$165,000	$115	66
823 NE Elsey Pl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,236 (-7%)	5mo	$265,000	$214	60
570 SE Sunflower Pl	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+5%)	8mo	$264,500	$189	56
268 NE Anderson Ter	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+7%)	6mo	$125,000	$88	55
849 NE Maple Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,180 (-11%)	1mo	$95,000	$81	52
493 SE Church Ave	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+8%)	2mo	$187,500	$130	49
240 SE Cameron Ter	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,225 (-8%)	5mo	$235,000	$192	45
211 NE Bradley Ter	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,136 (-14%)	3mo	$125,000	$110	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $120,620
• Equity at exit: $195,491

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.81×
• Total profit: $353,157
• Equity at exit: $421,583

Cash invested: $60,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32025

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,792 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,138
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,783/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,743

Max offer price $217,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,250
• Closing costs: $6,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $217,000 Active 656 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $217,000 Active 655 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $217,000 Active 654 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $217,000 Active 653 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $217,000 Active 652 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $217,000 Active 650 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $217,000 Active 649 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $217,000 Active 646 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $217,000 Active 645 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $217,000 Active 644 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $217,000 Active 641 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $217,000 Active 640 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $217,000 Active 639 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $217,000 Active 638 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $217,000 Active 637 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $217,000 Active 636 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    status Active
18. 2026-04-20
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-06
    price $217,000
20. 2026-03-27
    price $217,898
21. 2026-02-23
    price $217,900
22. 2026-02-13
    price $219,900
23. 2026-01-13
    price $219,000
24. 2026-01-07
    price $217,000
25. 2025-10-17
    price $219,000
26. 2025-10-11
    price $219,990
27. 2025-08-29
    price $219,000
28. 2025-08-22
    price $229,000
29. 2025-03-12
    price $229,990
30. 2025-01-02
    price $229,999
31. 2024-11-27
    listed $229,000 Active
32. 2024-11-14
    price $229,000
33. 2024-11-07
    price $229,999
34. 2024-11-06
    status Active
35. 2024-10-03
    price $219,000
36. 2024-09-29
    price $229,000
37. 2024-09-17
    price $239,899
38. 2024-08-28
    price $239,900
39. 2024-08-28
    status Active
40. 2024-07-25
    listed $229,900 Active
41. 2021-08-11
    soldstatus $65,000
42. 2021-04-14
    soldstatus $65,000
43. 1995-11-01
    soldstatus $29,200
44. 1990-03-01
    soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,783 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,801 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$18/yr (+$2/mo · 1.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,155
• − Property taxes: −$1,783
• − Insurance: −$1,085
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,721
• − Management: −$1,721
• − Depreciation: −$6,313
• Taxable loss: −$3,269
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$785
• After-tax cash flow: $1,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• City population: 40,507
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,948
• Household income: $55,004
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 754.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 276.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+648.3% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $217,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $217,898 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $217,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $217,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $219,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-12 Price Changed $229,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $229,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-27 Listed $229,000 NFMLS
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-07 Price Changed $229,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-03 Price Changed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-29 Price Changed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-17 Price Changed $239,899 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-25 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-14 Sold (MLS) $65,000 NFMLS
• 1995-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,200 Public Records
• 1990-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,783 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.