9225 Collins Ave #610 · Surfside, FL 33154

$428,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 918 sqft · Condo public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1967 $956/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks at the desirable Surfside shoreline. Transform this all-pink classic into a modern Surfside showpiece. This 1-bedroom, 1-1/2 bath condo is ready for renovation, offering the perfect canvas to create your dream beach retreat or a smart investment property in one of Miami’s most sought-after neighborhoods. Located in the Four Winds, a boutique oceanfront building that offers direct access to the beach, 24/7 security, an oceanfront pool, on-site management, and laundry facilities on every floor. Positioned just minutes from Bal Harbour Shops and steps from the world-class Four Seasons Surf Club, the building is also close to shopping, dining, houses of worship, and the

Key facts

• Oceanfront pool
• Full renovation
• On-site management

Tags

• MODERN SURFSIDE SHOWPIECE
• FULL RENOVATION
• BOUTIQUE OCEANFRONT BUILDING
• DIRECT ACCESS TO THE BEACH
• OCEANFRONT POOL
• ON-SITE MANAGEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets not allowed
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee (includes association management, water, sewer, trash); Association amenities: clubhouse, laundry, pool, trash service, elevators

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Guest parking; One covered space (garage)
• Security: Doorman; Secured lobby
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Condominium unit in a 12-story building; Entry on level 6; Attached property
• Construction: Block construction
• Exterior features: Balcony (open); Security/high-impact doors; Oceanfront waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Impact glass windows; Breakfast area; Eat-in kitchen; Living/dining room; Closet cabinetry; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $428k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-934/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $414k (3.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $428k).
• Recommended offer: $389k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#258 in FL, #4,141 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 522 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,751/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 774% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $120k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($389k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $428k implies a 494% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $389,480 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.12% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $108,460
• Equity at exit: $272,421

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $298,318
• Equity at exit: $496,950

Cash invested: $119,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33154

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 522
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,751 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,244
• Tax from tax record: −$453 /mo · $5,431/yr
• Insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$956
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$998
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,850

Max offer price $414,246

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,000
• Closing costs: $12,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $956 · $11,472/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $428,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $428,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $428,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $428,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $428,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $428,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $428,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $428,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $428,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $428,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $428,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $428,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $428,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-03-10
    listed $428,000 Active
15. 1986-08-01
    soldstatus $72,000
16. 1974-12-01
    soldstatus $34,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,431 · $453/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,431 · $453/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 50% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,975
• − Property taxes: −$5,431
• − Insurance: −$2,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,561
• − Management: −$4,561
• − HOA: −$11,472
• − Depreciation: −$12,451
• Taxable loss: −$7,575
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,818
• After-tax cash flow: $884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Surfside

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #4141

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surfside, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 14,435
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,572
• Household income: $89,563
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 774.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 25% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 12% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 7% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.12%
• Current HPI: 454.1747
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.30%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1151.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $428,000 MARMLS
• 1986-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 1974-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $34,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,431 · -9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.