4404 Conifers St · Bagdad, FL 32583

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 142 Days on market

Built 2005 10,802 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-Bedroom Manufactured Home in Milton, FL – Your Ideal Florida Retreat Welcome to your new home in the heart of Milton, Florida! This delightful 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured residence offers a perfect blend of comfort and affordability, making it an excellent choice for first-time buyers, retirees, or anyone seeking a serene lifestyle. Key Features: Spacious Living: Three well-sized bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Functional Bathroom: A well-maintained bathroom ensures convenience and comfort. Open-Concept Design: The open living and dining areas create a welcoming atmosphere for entertaining and everyday living. Outdoor Enjoyment: A generous yard offers plenty of space for gardening, play, or relaxation under the Florida sun. Community Highlights: Located in Milton, a city known for its friendly community and natural beauty, you'll enjoy easy access to local parks, shopping centers, and dining options. The area boasts a variety of outdoor activities, including hiking and kayaking, thanks to its proximity to the Blackwater River and surrounding nature trails. Market Insights: Milton's real estate market offers a range of opportunities for buyers. With a variety of homes available, including manufactured options, it's an ideal time to consider making a move to this charming city. Don't miss out on this opportunity to own a piece of Milton's welcoming community. Schedule a viewing today and discover the potential this home has to offer! Sources

Key facts

• Large yard
• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• LARGE YARD
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 2 spaces per unit
• Utilities: Copper wiring; Septic tank; Paved road; county maintained
• Home design: Mobile/Manufactured or modular home; Single-story; Resale condition
• Construction: Off-grade foundation; Insulated walls
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 14); Second bedroom on the first floor (approx. 8 x 14); Third bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10 x 14)
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Vinyl and carpet flooring; Eat-in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $730 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 5.0% in Bagdad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#571 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.31%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $42,840
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4404 Conifers St	0.00mi	3/1.0	840 (0%)	0mo	$95,000	$113	100
6225 Goliath Rd	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	852 (+1%)	13mo	$32,000	$38	68
4413 Basswood St	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	938 (+12%)	13mo	$48,000	$51	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $32,913
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $99,609
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,693 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $504/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $730

Break-even live

Break-even rent $769

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6478 Da Lisa Rd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	23d	1	1.02mi
4389 Park Ct Trlr Park , FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	23d	1	1.11mi
4355 Park Ct Trlr Park , FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,200	$1.20	23d	1	1.12mi
6436 Highway 90 Milton, FL	2.0	1.0	512	$1,395	$2.72	14d	8	1.18mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $99,900 Pending 142 DOM
2. 2026-03-12
   status Active
3. 2026-03-10
   historical Contingent
4. 2026-01-08
   listed $99,900 Active
5. 2025-08-13
   soldstatus $85,000 Sold 1536-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1536 chars)

   Charming 3-Bedroom Manufactured Home in Milton, FL – Your Ideal Florida Retreat Welcome to your new home in the heart of Milton, Florida! This delightful 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured residence offers a perfect blend of comfort and affordability, making it an excellent choice for first-time buyers, retirees, or anyone seeking a serene lifestyle. Key Features: Spacious Living: Three well-sized bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Functional Bathroom: A well-maintained bathroom ensures convenience and comfort. Open-Concept Design: The open living and dining areas create a welcoming atmosphere for entertaining and everyday living. Outdoor Enjoyment: A generous yard offers plenty of space for gardening, play, or relaxation under the Florida sun. Community Highlights: Located in Milton, a city known for its friendly community and natural beauty, you'll enjoy easy access to local parks, shopping centers, and dining options. The area boasts a variety of outdoor activities, including hiking and kayaking, thanks to its proximity to the Blackwater River and surrounding nature trails. Market Insights: Milton's real estate market offers a range of opportunities for buyers. With a variety of homes available, including manufactured options, it's an ideal time to consider making a move to this charming city. Don't miss out on this opportunity to own a piece of Milton's welcoming community. Schedule a viewing today and discover the potential this home has to offer! Sources

6. 2025-08-13
   soldstatus $85,000

   Show marketing remark (1536 chars)

   Charming 3-Bedroom Manufactured Home in Milton, FL – Your Ideal Florida Retreat Welcome to your new home in the heart of Milton, Florida! This delightful 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured residence offers a perfect blend of comfort and affordability, making it an excellent choice for first-time buyers, retirees, or anyone seeking a serene lifestyle. Key Features: Spacious Living: Three well-sized bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Functional Bathroom: A well-maintained bathroom ensures convenience and comfort. Open-Concept Design: The open living and dining areas create a welcoming atmosphere for entertaining and everyday living. Outdoor Enjoyment: A generous yard offers plenty of space for gardening, play, or relaxation under the Florida sun. Community Highlights: Located in Milton, a city known for its friendly community and natural beauty, you'll enjoy easy access to local parks, shopping centers, and dining options. The area boasts a variety of outdoor activities, including hiking and kayaking, thanks to its proximity to the Blackwater River and surrounding nature trails. Market Insights: Milton's real estate market offers a range of opportunities for buyers. With a variety of homes available, including manufactured options, it's an ideal time to consider making a move to this charming city. Don't miss out on this opportunity to own a piece of Milton's welcoming community. Schedule a viewing today and discover the potential this home has to offer! Sources

7. 2025-07-16
   status Pending 1536-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1536 chars)

   Charming 3-Bedroom Manufactured Home in Milton, FL – Your Ideal Florida Retreat Welcome to your new home in the heart of Milton, Florida! This delightful 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured residence offers a perfect blend of comfort and affordability, making it an excellent choice for first-time buyers, retirees, or anyone seeking a serene lifestyle. Key Features: Spacious Living: Three well-sized bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Functional Bathroom: A well-maintained bathroom ensures convenience and comfort. Open-Concept Design: The open living and dining areas create a welcoming atmosphere for entertaining and everyday living. Outdoor Enjoyment: A generous yard offers plenty of space for gardening, play, or relaxation under the Florida sun. Community Highlights: Located in Milton, a city known for its friendly community and natural beauty, you'll enjoy easy access to local parks, shopping centers, and dining options. The area boasts a variety of outdoor activities, including hiking and kayaking, thanks to its proximity to the Blackwater River and surrounding nature trails. Market Insights: Milton's real estate market offers a range of opportunities for buyers. With a variety of homes available, including manufactured options, it's an ideal time to consider making a move to this charming city. Don't miss out on this opportunity to own a piece of Milton's welcoming community. Schedule a viewing today and discover the potential this home has to offer! Sources

8. 2025-05-22
   listed $99,900 Active 1536-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1536 chars)

   Charming 3-Bedroom Manufactured Home in Milton, FL – Your Ideal Florida Retreat Welcome to your new home in the heart of Milton, Florida! This delightful 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom manufactured residence offers a perfect blend of comfort and affordability, making it an excellent choice for first-time buyers, retirees, or anyone seeking a serene lifestyle. Key Features: Spacious Living: Three well-sized bedrooms provide ample space for family, guests, or a home office. Functional Bathroom: A well-maintained bathroom ensures convenience and comfort. Open-Concept Design: The open living and dining areas create a welcoming atmosphere for entertaining and everyday living. Outdoor Enjoyment: A generous yard offers plenty of space for gardening, play, or relaxation under the Florida sun. Community Highlights: Located in Milton, a city known for its friendly community and natural beauty, you'll enjoy easy access to local parks, shopping centers, and dining options. The area boasts a variety of outdoor activities, including hiking and kayaking, thanks to its proximity to the Blackwater River and surrounding nature trails. Market Insights: Milton's real estate market offers a range of opportunities for buyers. With a variety of homes available, including manufactured options, it's an ideal time to consider making a move to this charming city. Don't miss out on this opportunity to own a piece of Milton's welcoming community. Schedule a viewing today and discover the potential this home has to offer! Sources

9. 2022-10-06
   soldstatus $75,000
10. 2022-09-30
    soldstatus $75,000 Sold 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    3 bed 1 bath 840 square feet manufactured home located on a quiet street. Previous owner was handicapped, and some of the design elements and construction reflect that. Property is not in need of any immediate repairs. Property is in good condition and ready for it's new owner! Handicap accessible, wheelchair, wheelchair ramp, wheelchair accessible

11. 2022-09-22
    status Pending 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    3 bed 1 bath 840 square feet manufactured home located on a quiet street. Previous owner was handicapped, and some of the design elements and construction reflect that. Property is not in need of any immediate repairs. Property is in good condition and ready for it's new owner! Handicap accessible, wheelchair, wheelchair ramp, wheelchair accessible

12. 2022-09-19
    status Active 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    3 bed 1 bath 840 square feet manufactured home located on a quiet street. Previous owner was handicapped, and some of the design elements and construction reflect that. Property is not in need of any immediate repairs. Property is in good condition and ready for it's new owner! Handicap accessible, wheelchair, wheelchair ramp, wheelchair accessible

13. 2022-09-19
    price $79,900 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    3 bed 1 bath 840 square feet manufactured home located on a quiet street. Previous owner was handicapped, and some of the design elements and construction reflect that. Property is not in need of any immediate repairs. Property is in good condition and ready for it's new owner! Handicap accessible, wheelchair, wheelchair ramp, wheelchair accessible

14. 2022-08-23
    historical 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    3 bed 1 bath 840 square feet manufactured home located on a quiet street. Previous owner was handicapped, and some of the design elements and construction reflect that. Property is not in need of any immediate repairs. Property is in good condition and ready for it's new owner! Handicap accessible, wheelchair, wheelchair ramp, wheelchair accessible

15. 2022-08-06
    status Pending 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    3 bed 1 bath 840 square feet manufactured home located on a quiet street. Previous owner was handicapped, and some of the design elements and construction reflect that. Property is not in need of any immediate repairs. Property is in good condition and ready for it's new owner! Handicap accessible, wheelchair, wheelchair ramp, wheelchair accessible

16. 2022-08-04
    listed $69,900 Active 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    3 bed 1 bath 840 square feet manufactured home located on a quiet street. Previous owner was handicapped, and some of the design elements and construction reflect that. Property is not in need of any immediate repairs. Property is in good condition and ready for it's new owner! Handicap accessible, wheelchair, wheelchair ramp, wheelchair accessible

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $504 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $829 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$325/yr (+$27/mo · 64.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$504
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,625
• − Management: −$1,625
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $7,558
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,814
• After-tax cash flow: $6,944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bagdad

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #571
• US rank: #10887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bagdad, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+42.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $99,900 PARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-13 Sold (MLS) $85,000 PARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Pending — PARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Listed $99,900 PARMLS
• 2022-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-30 Sold (MLS) $75,000 PARMLS
• 2022-09-22 Pending — PARMLS
• 2022-09-19 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2022-09-19 Price Changed $79,900 PARMLS
• 2022-08-23 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2022-08-06 Pending — PARMLS
• 2022-08-04 Listed $69,900 PARMLS

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $504 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.