4367 Shining Star Dr #3 · Sacramento, CA 95823

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Condo public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1970 $395/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated two-story condominium featuring modern upgrades throughout the past few years. This well-maintained home offers laminate flooring throughout, dual-pane windows, newer cabinets, remodeled bathroom and sits in convenient location close to shopping, dining, and major routes. The unit is currently tenant-occupied, with a reliable tenant willing to stay or vacate prior to closing, making this a great opportunity for both investors and owner-occupants.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Newer cabinets
• Modern upgrades

Tags

• UPDATED CONDOMINIUM
• MODERN UPGRADES
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• NEWER CABINETS
• REMODELED BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($299/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Sacramento City Unified (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #804 of 1,400 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Leonardo Da Vinci (797 students, 35% FRL); Fern Bacon Middle (671 students, 92% FRL); Luther Burbank High (1,603 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $120k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.61%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-32,034
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-46,162
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95823

• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,868 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $782/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$395
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,836

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $74	+0% $25	+5% $-25	+10% $-74
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $-49	+0% $25	+5% $99	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $69	base $25	+0.5pp $-20	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4400 Shining Star Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1225	$2,254	$1.84	45d	1	0.08mi
74 La Fresa Ct #3 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,950	$2.32	45d	1	0.13mi
7408 Franklin Blvd #2 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,300	$1.55	23d	1	0.14mi
4407 Bouts Pkwy Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	45d	1	0.23mi
7605 Franklin Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	824	$1,645	$2.00	4d	1	0.46mi
7238 East Pkwy Apt B5 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,645	$1.61	9d	1	0.63mi
7051 Bowling Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	716	$1,445	$2.02	4d	5	0.84mi
7726 Laurie Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1069	$2,075	$1.94	9d	1	0.87mi
2777 Meadowview Rd Unit 2779 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	0d	1	1.09mi
2777 Meadowview Rd Unit 2781 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,295	$1.62	23d	1	1.09mi
7474 La Mancha Way Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	777	$1,695	$2.18	0d	3	1.10mi
7400 Loma Verde Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$2,100	$2.44	0d	1	1.11mi
7905 Farnell Way Unit 7905 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	559	$1,800	$3.22	25d	1	1.13mi
4197 Cuny Ave Unit 3 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1051	$2,000	$1.90	19d	1	1.23mi
5152 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	597	$1,603	$2.69	5d	1	1.30mi
5152 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	801	$1,784	$2.23	0d	1	1.30mi
5152 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	597	$1,525	$2.55	25d	1	1.30mi
5152 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	801	$1,731	$2.16	19d	1	1.30mi
5152 Mack Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	801	$1,891	$2.36	22d	1	1.30mi
7252 Florin Mall Dr Unit 7252 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,725	$1.92	45d	1	1.31mi
3912 49th Ave Unit 15 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,495	$2.14	25d	1	1.33mi
3912 49th Ave Unit 16 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,700	$2.43	45d	1	1.33mi
7283 Florin Mall Dr #14 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	902	$1,675	$1.86	45d	1	1.33mi
3912 49th Ave Unit 17 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,600	$2.29	45d	1	1.34mi
3912 49th Ave Apt 10 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	811	$1,895	$2.34	45d	1	1.34mi
3912 49th Ave Unit 9 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	811	$1,795	$2.21	45d	1	1.34mi
26 Nedra Ct Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,650	$1.68	45d	1	1.36mi
26 Nedra Ct Unit A1 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,650	$1.68	22d	1	1.36mi
7638 24th St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	976	$1,900	$1.95	45d	1	1.38mi
3903 49th Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	585	$1,445	$2.47	9d	1	1.38mi
6855 Carnation Ave Unit 6855 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,025	$1.84	4d	1	1.42mi
7826 Center Pkwy Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	737	$1,795	$2.43	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $395 · $4,740/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2006-08-31
   soldstatus $120,000
3. 2006-08-31
   soldstatus $120,000
4. 1998-08-17
   soldstatus $7,500
5. 1997-04-21
   soldstatus $7,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $782 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,330 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$548/yr (+$46/mo · 70.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$782
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − HOA: −$4,740
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$591
• After-tax cash flow: $890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sacramento City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633840
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,280
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #10000
• State rank: #804 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 83,607
• Household income: $66,895
• Rent vs Own: 52.4% rent · 47.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4034.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Asian 25% Black 17% Two or more races 16% White 11% Pacific Islander 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 9% Other Indo-European 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -331.02%
• Current HPI: 377.4278
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.02%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1614.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2006-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 1998-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records
• 1997-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $7,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $782 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.