22094 State Highway P · Ava, MO 65608

$109,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,751 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

Built 1920 Fair condition 3.00 ac lot ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Homesteader Special!!! Opportunity is knocking with the price reduced! Come check out this 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath home on 3 acres, part open, part timber, small orchard with great dirt, great views and several outbuildings for storge or animals. This home has double, near new mini split system, family room with many options, good well and state highway frontage.

Key facts

• Good well
• Small orchard
• Great views

Tags

• 3 ACRES
• SMALL ORCHARD
• GREAT VIEWS
• SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS
• MINI SPLIT SYSTEM
• GOOD WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $110k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.6% in Ava — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#12 in MO, #1,299 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, commute F, employment F.
• Ava R-I (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #177 of 324 in MO (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 139 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($760 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Douglas County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.17%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $74,307
• Equity at exit: $91,484

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.52×
• Total profit: $200,484
• Equity at exit: $189,795

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65608

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,389 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,648/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $109,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    status Active 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Homesteader Special!!! Opportunity is knocking with the price reduced! Come check out this 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath home on 3 acres, part open, part timber, small orchard with great dirt, great views and several outbuildings for storge or animals. This home has double, near new mini split system, family room with many options, good well and state highway frontage.

16. 2026-04-14
    status Pending 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Homesteader Special!!! Opportunity is knocking with the price reduced! Come check out this 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath home on 3 acres, part open, part timber, small orchard with great dirt, great views and several outbuildings for storge or animals. This home has double, near new mini split system, family room with many options, good well and state highway frontage.

17. 2026-03-20
    listed $109,900 Active 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Homesteader Special!!! Opportunity is knocking with the price reduced! Come check out this 3 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath home on 3 acres, part open, part timber, small orchard with great dirt, great views and several outbuildings for storge or animals. This home has double, near new mini split system, family room with many options, good well and state highway frontage.

18. 2026-02-24
    price $114,900
19. 2026-02-12
    price $119,900
20. 2026-02-09
    price $124,900
21. 2026-02-04
    price $134,900
22. 2026-01-30
    price $144,900
23. 2026-01-26
    listed $154,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,648
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,333
• − Management: −$1,333
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $2,447
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$587
• After-tax cash flow: $3,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including painting, landscaping, and HVAC work, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Siding — Weathered and discolored
• Moderate Paint — Chipped in some areas
• Minor Landscaping — Sparse and overgrown

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and repainting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both HVAC maintenance and potential replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Siding · Weathered and discolored	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Paint · Chipped in some areas	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · Sparse and overgrown	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and repainting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance and potential replacement — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ava R-I
• NCES district ID: 2904050
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,148
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5766
• State rank: #177 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ava

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #1299

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,478

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,395 people
• By 2030: 11,690 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 10,185 · -17.8%
• By 2050: 8,805 · -29.0%
• By 2075: 6,716 · -45.8%
• By 2100: 5,493 · -55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Native American 1% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.7% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.2pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.8 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.05%
• Current HPI: 249.1557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-29.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Relisted — SOMO
• 2026-04-14 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-03-20 Listed $109,900 SOMO
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $114,900 SOMO
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $119,900 SOMO
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $124,900 SOMO
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $134,900 SOMO
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $144,900 SOMO
• 2026-01-26 Listed $154,900 SOMO