2701 E Utopia Rd #153 · Phoenix, AZ 85050

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured · 55 Days on market

Built 1994 Good condition $65/sqft · 35% below area Est $122k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new home at Paradise Shadows, a vibrant active adult community in North Phoenix. Residents enjoy access to a beautifully appointed clubhouse, complete with an indoor heated pool and relaxing jacuzzi. Perfectly situated on a premium corner lot within the community, this home offers exceptional privacy with no rear or side neighbor, along with stunning mountain views. Enjoy peaceful mornings watching the sunrise from the porch, and unwind in the evening with beautiful sunset views from your private yard. Inside, the home has been meticulously cared for and thoughtfully maintained. The spacious open floor plan is filled with natural light, highlighted by vaulted ceilings and ex

Key facts

• Premium corner lot
• Clubhouse
• Indoor heated pool

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE
• INDOOR HEATED POOL
• RELAXING JACUZZI
• PREMIUM CORNER LOT
• EXCEPTIONAL PRIVACY
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Tax information available
• HOA & community: Land lease community with a monthly land lease of $740; Association includes grounds maintenance; Community amenities include pool, golf, community spa (heated), and community media room

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer (connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Mountain views; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Wood siding; Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Metal roof; See remarks for additional details; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Private street; Private yard; Storage; Shed(s); Block fencing; Chain link fencing; Adjacent to wash; Corner lot; Desert front and desert back; Gravel/stone in back

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Floor furnace; Wall furnace
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; Full bath in master bedroom; Bath grab bars
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.8% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.66%
• DSCR: 3.79
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,221
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -34.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2913 E Piute Ave	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+1%)	3mo	$295,000	$236	80
2233 E Behrend Dr #29	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+1%)	2mo	$131,000	$105	61
2233 E Behrend Dr #219	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-6%)	0mo	$90,000	$78	56
19611 N 30th St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,162 (-6%)	7mo	$299,000	$257	55
2610 E Tonto Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+9%)	7mo	$250,000	$186	54
19809 N 26th St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-6%)	7mo	$125,000	$109	54
19602 N 32nd St #21	0.58mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,152 (-6%)	4mo	$124,000	$108	52
2938 E Tonto Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,362 (+11%)	4mo	$300,000	$220	50
19802 N 32nd St #78	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,162 (-6%)	3mo	$65,000	$56	48
19802 N 32nd St #76	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	4mo	$124,900	$93	48
19802 N 32nd St #51	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-12%)	7mo	$49,500	$46	40
2233 E Behrend Dr #93	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-14%)	6mo	$47,000	$45	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $59,275
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.20×
• Total profit: $138,658
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85050

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,178 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $1,168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,223	-5% $1,196	+0% $1,168	+5% $1,141	+10% $1,113
Rent	-10% $996	-5% $1,082	+0% $1,168	+5% $1,254	+10% $1,340
Rate	-1.0pp $1,208	-0.5pp $1,188	base $1,168	+0.5pp $1,147	+1.0pp $1,126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3056 E Siesta Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1476	$2,375	$1.61	13d	1	0.49mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,590	$1.65	0d	11	0.49mi
2335 E Utopia Rd Unit 16 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1426	$2,550	$1.79	19d	1	0.50mi
2336 E Utopia Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1327	$2,395	$1.80	6d	1	0.51mi
2755 E Michigan Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,700	$2.05	18d	1	0.52mi
3122 E Topeka Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1272	$2,100	$1.65	22d	1	0.54mi
19635 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,643	$1.64	0d	20	0.55mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	0d	8	0.57mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	4d	9	0.57mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Unit 6 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	748	$1,250	$1.67	8d	1	0.58mi
2554 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1118	$2,750	$2.46	25d	1	0.61mi
2311 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,681	$2.01	0d	11	0.65mi
2500 E Marco Polo Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$2,390	$2.60	3d	16	0.66mi
3220 E Kerry Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,299	$1.68	15d	1	0.66mi
3220 E Kerry Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,299	$1.68	25d	1	0.66mi
3214 E Siesta Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1228	$2,200	$1.79	25d	1	0.66mi
2602 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,100	$1.47	25d	1	0.66mi
18202 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	722	$1,148	$1.59	4d	7	0.67mi
2221 E Union Hills Dr #158 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1332	$2,100	$1.58	19d	1	0.72mi
3301 E Wescott Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,995	$1.81	25d	1	0.72mi
20050 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,770	$1.95	2d	10	0.78mi
2934 E Blackhawk Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,280	$1.55	2d	1	0.87mi
20223 N 30th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,300	$1.57	2d	1	0.88mi
2220 E Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,669	$1.95	0d	64	0.97mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	25d	1	0.99mi
18617 N 35th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1425	$2,400	$1.68	11d	1	0.99mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	650	$1,625	$2.50	0d	11	1.00mi
20007 N 20th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1251	$3,900	$3.12	44d	1	1.00mi
2030 E Wahalla Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,115	$1.51	3d	1	1.00mi
2067 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	25d	1	1.00mi
3235 E Hononegh Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1356	$2,400	$1.77	0d	1	1.08mi
17365 N Cave Creek Rd #124 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1468	$2,299	$1.57	15d	1	1.10mi
1717 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1169	$1,675	$1.43	3d	3	1.16mi
1717 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1245	$1,775	$1.43	22d	4	1.16mi
3316 E Helena Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,000	$1.70	25d	1	1.20mi
17150 N 23rd St #135 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1186	$1,900	$1.60	15d	1	1.23mi
1717 E Union Hills Dr #1052 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1160	$4,000	$3.45	44d	1	1.24mi
17150 N 23rd St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1172	$1,712	$1.46	5d	2	1.30mi
17150 N 23rd St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1172	$1,712	$1.46	4d	2	1.30mi
3113 E Danbury Rd #22 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1353	$5,000	$3.70	25d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    listed $79,900 Active 1452-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,091
• − Management: −$2,091
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $13,553
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,253
• After-tax cash flow: $10,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home in Paradise Shadows offers a good condition with a good ROI potential for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace carpet in living room — Freshens up the space and improves rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in living room — Freshens up the space and improves rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 33,118
• Household income: $139,836
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.38%
• Current HPI: 308.7483
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $79,900 ARMLS