3636 46th Ave NW · Rochester, MN 55901

$410,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,143 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2013 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This quality Ranch is completely finished with; 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, master suite with your own private master bath and walk-in closet, walk-out lower level, appliances, yard fully sodded, gutters, A/C. The open floor plan offers bright, natural light. Walking distance to City park. - Photos in listing are example photos of finished product - Buyer will actually pick out their building choices

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Quiet neighborhood
• Private hot tub

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE HOT TUB
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• WALKING DISTANCE TO LOCAL PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $391k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $332k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $332k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunset Terrace Elementary (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #604 of 857 statewide, top 74%, 467 students, 56% FRL); John Adams Middle (math 20% / reading 42%, grade F, #191 of 258 statewide, top 74%, 731 students, 42% FRL); John Marshall Senior High (math 37% / reading 58%, grade D, #162 of 471 statewide, top 35%, 1,573 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 31% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $231k; list at $410k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $331,620 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.11%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-75,905
• Equity at exit: $61,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-85,793
• Equity at exit: $35,449

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55901

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,316 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$405 /mo · $4,856/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$696
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,450

Max offer price $391,312

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $10	+0% $-106	+5% $-222	+10% $-338
Rent	-10% $-368	-5% $-237	+0% $-106	+5% $25	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $101	-0.5pp $-2	base $-106	+0.5pp $-212	+1.0pp $-320

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3955 Superior Dr NW Rochester, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	918	$3,699	$4.03	15d	141	0.28mi
2257 Jordyn Rd NW Rochester, MN	3.0	2.0	1715	$3,440	$2.01	45d	1	0.96mi
2127 Preserve Dr NW Rochester, MN	3.0	2.5	2136	$3,675	$1.72	45d	1	1.07mi
4275 Heritage Pl NW Rochester, MN	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2067	$3,946	$1.91	15d	9	1.11mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-03-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $410,000 Active
3. 2018-12-11
   historical 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   This quality Ranch is completely finished with; 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, master suite with your own private master bath and walk-in closet, walk-out lower level, appliances, yard fully sodded, gutters, A/C. The open floor plan offers bright, natural light. Walking distance to City park. - Photos in listing are example photos of finished product - Buyer will actually pick out their building choices

4. 2018-12-09
   historical 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   You'll love this setting in NW Rochester. Great location for these lots. Behind the Mayo Clinic Support Center. Close to many shopping venues. A five acre city park only steps away. You'll love it!

5. 2013-08-23
   soldstatus $231,144 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   This quality Ranch is completely finished with; 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, master suite with your own private master bath and walk-in closet, walk-out lower level, appliances, yard fully sodded, gutters, A/C. The open floor plan offers bright, natural light. Walking distance to City park. - Photos in listing are example photos of finished product - Buyer will actually pick out their building choices

6. 2013-08-23
   soldstatus $231,144

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   This quality Ranch is completely finished with; 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, master suite with your own private master bath and walk-in closet, walk-out lower level, appliances, yard fully sodded, gutters, A/C. The open floor plan offers bright, natural light. Walking distance to City park. - Photos in listing are example photos of finished product - Buyer will actually pick out their building choices

7. 2013-02-21
   listed $227,035

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   This quality Ranch is completely finished with; 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, master suite with your own private master bath and walk-in closet, walk-out lower level, appliances, yard fully sodded, gutters, A/C. The open floor plan offers bright, natural light. Walking distance to City park. - Photos in listing are example photos of finished product - Buyer will actually pick out their building choices

8. 2013-02-21
   listed $227,035 397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (397 chars)

   This quality Ranch is completely finished with; 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, master suite with your own private master bath and walk-in closet, walk-out lower level, appliances, yard fully sodded, gutters, A/C. The open floor plan offers bright, natural light. Walking distance to City park. - Photos in listing are example photos of finished product - Buyer will actually pick out their building choices

9. 2012-04-03
   soldstatus $128,000
10. 2012-03-23
    soldstatus $32,000 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    You'll love this setting in NW Rochester. Great location for these lots. Behind the Mayo Clinic Support Center. Close to many shopping venues. A five acre city park only steps away. You'll love it!

11. 2008-02-04
    listed $39,900

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    You'll love this setting in NW Rochester. Great location for these lots. Behind the Mayo Clinic Support Center. Close to many shopping venues. A five acre city park only steps away. You'll love it!

12. 2008-02-04
    listed $39,900 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    You'll love this setting in NW Rochester. Great location for these lots. Behind the Mayo Clinic Support Center. Close to many shopping venues. A five acre city park only steps away. You'll love it!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,856 · $405/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,856 · $405/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$4,856
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,184
• − Management: −$3,184
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$8,372
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,009
• After-tax cash flow: $740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 58,495
• Household income: $94,607
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1651.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 12% Asian 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.08%
• Current HPI: 253.7999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+927.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $410,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-09 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-23 Sold (MLS) $231,144 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-23 Sold (MLS) $231,144 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-21 Listed $227,035 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-21 Listed $227,035 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records
• 2012-03-23 Sold (MLS) $32,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-04 Listed $39,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-04 Listed $39,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+30.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,856 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.